Probability Foundations of Economic Theory

Nonstationarity of efficient finance markets: FX market evolution from stability to instability

“…It is exactly this feature that makes such a market inefficient, makes the market beatable, as we will now show. All earlier economic theorizing about stationarity and ergodicity (McCann, 1994) apparently missed this key point.…”

“…From self-contradictory models and language can only follow the confusion of the wrong expectations. McCann wrote (McCann, 1994) that rational expectations in the hands of Lucas (1971) effectively redefined equilibrium so that 'disequilbrium becomes a vacuous concept'. That effort failed.…”

La crítica de J. M. Keynes al proyecto de matematizar la probabilidad de J. Bernoulli

“…Estas eminencias, si bien fueron destacados lógicos y filósofos en su época, no hicieron contribuciones específicas en el campo de la probabilidad. Tanto O'Donnell (1989), como Carabelli (1988), Gillies (2000), McCann (1994) y Landro (2010 y 2014) explican el Tratado como consecuencia del contexto intelectual inmediato de Keynes, remarcando su carácter disruptivo respecto a la historia del concepto de "probabilidad".…”

EQUILIBRIUM VERSUS MARKET EFFICIENCY Randomness versus Complexity in Finance Markets

“…Historically seen, rational expectations was an attempt to put randomness into the straightjacket of the neoclassical economic model (McCann, 1994). Avoiding historic misconceptions, we will state the only correct formal mathematical definition of market equilibrium.…”