Probability misjudgment and belief in the paranormal: A newspaper survey

Abstract

In a newspaper survey with 6238 respondents 59 per cent were believers in the paranormal. There was a large sex difference : 70 per cent of females were believers but only 48 per cent of males. Respondents were asked whether a list of 10 statements were true for them, and to estimate numbers true for other people. The 'probability misjudgment ' theories predicted that believers would underestimate the number of statements true for other people, more than non-believers. This was not found, but believers did claim that more statements were true for them. The 'probability misjudgment' theories are not supported.

Paranormal belief and the conjunction fallacy: Controlling for temporal relatedness and potential surprise differentials in component events

“…Previous studies suggest paranormal believers are prone to a variety of cognitive 'deficits' (for reviews see French, 1992;French & Wilson, 2007;Irwin, 1993Irwin, , 2009Irwin & Watt, 2007) of which, arguably the most robust, is an especially poor understanding of probability and/or randomness (e.g., Blackmore & Troscianko, 1985;Blagrove, French, & Jones, 2006;Bressan, 2002;Brugger, Landis, & Regard, 1990;Brugger, Regard, Landis, Krebs, & Niederberger, 1991;Brugger & Taylor, 2003;Marks, 2000;Tobacyk & Wilkinson, 1991;Vyse, 1997;Watt, 1990Watt, -1991Wiseman & Watt 2006; although see Blackmore, 1997;Musch & Ehrenberg, 2002;Roberts & Seager, 1999;Stuart-Hamilton, Nayak, & Priest, 2006). In one study, Blackmore and Troscianko (1985) found participants who believed in the validity of extrasensory perception (ESP) made more errors when estimating coin tossing and sampling outcomes than did non-believers, with the former adopting what the authors referred to as a 'chance baseline shift'.…”

Paranormal belief and susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy

“…Blackmore & Troscianko, 1985). Blackmore (1997) found paranormal believers and sceptics were equally likely to underestimate the odds that statements such as 'I have a scar on my left knee' and 'I once broke my arm' would apply to most people. Similarly, Roberts and Seager (1999) found belief in the paranormal correlated with conditional-but not probabilistic-reasoning ability.…”

Development and validation of the multi-dimensional questionnaire of scientifically unsubstantiated beliefs

“…The score on each subscale of the REI was calculated as the sum of the items on the corresponding subscale, with items reverse scored as appropriate. Means and standard deviations of the scales and facets, and bivariate correlations among the variables, are shown in The absence of gender differences is unexpected in light of the substantial body of research showing consistent, though small, gender differences (see French & Stone, 2014, for a review) but it is noted here that other researchers have failed to find gender differences (Blackmore, 1997;Vitulli & Luper, 1998;McLenon, 1994). …”

“…The absence of gender effects may be due to a general decrease in gender differences in paranormal belief (Blackmore, 1997;Vitulli & Luper, 1998;McLenon, 1994). Alternatively, the frequently observed gender differences in levels of belief may be due to the underlying trait of fantasy proneness, rather than gender per se; fantasy proneness was higher in females (mean = 10.…”

“…It is possible that in recent times gender differences, which have generally been small, are becoming less pronounced (Blackmore, 1997;Vitulli & Luper, 1998;McLenon, 1994). Another possibility is that gender differences are not based on gender per se but on other, related psychological variables, for example fantasy proneness, which was not routinely included in previous research.…”