Possible reasons for belief in the paranormal are discussed and two hypotheses suggested. The first ‐that some belief in psi arises from misjudgements of probability ‐ predicts more errors in probability tasks among believers (sheep) than disbelievers (goats). In two experiments subjects completed various computer‐controlled probability tasks. In the first sheep performed worse than goats on most tasks and were significantly worse at responding appropriately to changes in sample size. In Expt 2 sheep were significantly worse at questions involving sampling.
The second hypothesis is that some belief in psi arises from an illusion of control. Previous studies have shown a greater illusion of control among sheep in psi tasks (even when no psi occurs). We predicted the same effect in tasks not overtly involving psi. This was confirmed in Expt 3, using a computer‐controlled coin‐tossing task. Half the trials allowed for subject control of the coin and half did not. Sheep felt that they were exercising greater control than goats (irrespective of actual control) but estimated they had scored fewer hits. This could be explained if sheep misjudged chance scoring level. This was tested and sheep were found to underestimate chance scores. This ‘chance baseline shift’ could underlie the illusion of control and the belief in psi. No evidence of psi was found.
Our construction of a stable visual world, despite the presence of saccades, is discussed. A computer-graphics method was used to explore transsaccadic memory for complex images. Images of real-life scenes were presented under four conditions: they stayed still or moved in an unpredictable direction (forcing an eye movement), while simultaneously changing or staying the same. Changes were the appearance, disappearance, or rotation of an object in the scene. Subjects detected the changes easily when the image did not move but when it moved their performance fell to chance. A grey-out period was introduced to mimic that which occurs during a saccade. This also reduced performance but not to chance levels. These results reveal the poverty of transsaccadic memory for real-life complex scenes. They are discussed with respect to Dennett's view that much less information is available in vision than our subjective impression leads us to believe. Our stable visual world may be constructed out of a brief retinal image and a very sketchy, higher-level representation along with a pop-out mechanism to redirect attention. The richness of our visual world is, to this extent, an illusion.
In a newspaper survey with 6238 respondents 59 per cent were believers in the paranormal. There was a large sex difference : 70 per cent of females were believers but only 48 per cent of males. Respondents were asked whether a list of 10 statements were true for them, and to estimate numbers true for other people. The 'probability misjudgment ' theories predicted that believers would underestimate the number of statements true for other people, more than non-believers. This was not found, but believers did claim that more statements were true for them. The 'probability misjudgment' theories are not supported.
SUMMARYReactions to claims of near-death experiences (NOE) range from the popular view that this must be evidence for life after death, to outright rejection of the experiences as, at best, drug induced hallucinations or, at worse, pure invention.Twenty years, and much research, later, it is clear that neither extreme is correct.
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