Probability Seismic Hazard Mapping of Taiwan

Cheng, Chung-Chih; Hsieh, Pao-Shan; Pan, Lin; Yen, Yin-Tung; Chan, Chung-Han

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_100-1

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…In the previous PSHA model for Taiwan (Cheng 2002;Cheng et al 2007Cheng et al , 2015, the hazards induced by specific fault sources were assessed using seismicity rates of a band of earthquake magnitudes (M w ≥ 6.5) obtained by the characteristic earthquake model (Schwartz and Coppersmith 1984). We considered the seismic hazards induced by specific faults with the seismicity rate of the characteristic earthquake in this study instead, which is considered the model most representative of Taiwan.…”

Section: Nsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Campbell et al (2002) developed a seismic hazard model for Taiwan that considered active fault sources-including the Chelungpu fault (which ruptured in 1999)-seismicity, and ground-motion information. Cheng (2002) and Cheng et al (2007Cheng et al ( , 2015 revised the hazard map using a more precise seismogenic source classification and adopted specific attenuation relationships for different sources. These studies provided reliable seismic hazard assessment by deaggregating data variance and also treated parameter uncertainties using logic trees.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Taiwan

Wang¹,

Chan²,

Lee³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) was established to assess the seismic hazard and risk for Taiwan by considering the social and economic impacts of various components from geology, seismology, and engineering. This paper gives the first version of TEM probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Taiwan in these aspects. We named it TEM PSHA2015. The model adopts the source parameters of 38 seismogenic structures identified by TEM geologists. In addition to specific fault sourcebased categorization, seismic activities are categorized as shallow, subduction intraplate, and subduction interplate events. To evaluate the potential ground-shaking resulting from each seismic source, the corresponding ground-motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes are adopted. The highest hazard probability is evaluated to be in Southwestern Taiwan and the Longitudinal Valley of Eastern Taiwan. Among the special municipalities in the highly populated Western Taiwan region, Taichung, Tainan, and New Taipei City are evaluated to have the highest hazard. Tainan has the highest seismic hazard for peak ground acceleration in the model based on TEM fault parameters. In terms of pseudo-spectral acceleration, Tainan has higher hazard over short spectral periods, whereas Taichung has higher hazard over long spectral periods. The analysis indicates the importance of earthquake-resistant designs for low-rise buildings in Tainan and high-rise buildings in Taichung.

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Section: Nsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Taiwan

Wang¹,

Chan²,

Lee³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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“…(2) If we only understand the elapsed time from the last earthquake the recurrence interval is calculated using the characteristic earthquake model (Youngs and Coppersmith 1985). We used the b value from the truncated exponential de-clustered catalogue model in shallow area sources, as partitioned by Cheng et al (2015). We finally chose the BPT model to assess the earthquake probability of a fault.…”

Section: Procedures For Estimating Earthquake Probability At Active Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The observation (red dots) data in Fig. 9 are chosen from shallow areal source, which was partitioned by Cheng et al (2015). Because it is difficult to distinguish which seismicity was occurred by the active fault and the chosen numbers of seismicity from only an active fault are too small to calculate the annual rate, this study chose a shallow areal source to calculate and plot the cumulative annual rate.…”

Section: Recurrence Interval Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake Probability Assessment for the Active Faults in Central Taiwan: A Case Study

Lee¹,

Cheng²,

Chuang³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Frequent high seismic activities occur in Taiwan due to fast plate motions. According to the historical records the most destructive earthquakes in Taiwan were caused mainly by inland active faults. The Central Geological Survey (CGS) of Taiwan has published active fault maps in Taiwan since 1998. There are 33 active faults noted in the 2012 active fault map. After the Chi-Chi earthquake, CGS launched a series of projects to investigate the details to better understand each active fault in Taiwan. This article collected this data to develop active fault parameters and referred to certain experiences from Japan and the United States to establish a methodology for earthquake probability assessment via active faults. We consider the active faults in Central Taiwan as a good example to present the earthquake probability assessment process and results. The appropriate "probability model" was used to estimate the conditional probability where M ≥ 6.5 and M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. Our result shows that the highest earthquake probability for M ≥ 6.5 earthquake occurring in 30, 50, and 100 years in Central Taiwan is the Tachia-Changhua fault system. Conversely, the lowest earthquake probability is the Chelungpu fault. The goal of our research is to calculate the earthquake probability of the 33 active faults in Taiwan. The active fault parameters are important information that can be applied in the following seismic hazard analysis and seismic simulation.

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“…Taiwan seismic hazard assessment research has been practiced at different stages for the last 30 years or so (see Cheng et al 2015 and references therein). The 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake played an important role in the model verification and modifications.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%