Procedures for estimation of modelling uncertainty in air quality assessment

Borrego, Carlos; Monteiro, A.; Ferreira, Joana; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Costa, Ana Margarida; Carvalho, Ana Cristina; Lopes, Myriam

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2007.12.005

Cited by 106 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The validation is done separately for winter (DJF), summer (JJA) months and for the whole year. The statistical measures evaluated were the correlation coefficient (r), root mean square error (RMSE), normalized mean square error (NMSE), the ratio of standard deviations (σ r , calculated as σ observation divided by σ model ) and fractional bias (FB), as defined by Borrego et al (2008) and adopted by Juda-Rezler et al (2012). They identified these metrics as the most important in assessing air quality model accuracy.…”

Section: Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

2016

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Abstract. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of urban emission from Central European cities on the present-day regional air quality, the regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled with the chemistry transport model CAMx, including two-way interactions. A series of simulations was carried out for the 2001-2010 period either with all urban emissions included (base case) or without considering urban emissions. Further, the sensitivity of ozone production to urban emissions was examined by performing reduction experiments with −20 % emission perturbation of NO x and/or non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC).The modeling system's air quality related outputs were evaluated using AirBase, and EMEP surface measurements showed reasonable reproduction of the monthly variation for ozone (O 3 ), but the annual cycle of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is more biased. In terms of hourly correlations, values achieved for ozone and NO 2 are 0.5-0.8 and 0.4-0.6, but SO 2 is poorly or not correlated at all with measurements (r around 0.2-0.5). The modeled fine particulates (PM 2.5 ) are usually underestimated, especially in winter, mainly due to underestimation of nitrates and carbonaceous aerosols.European air quality measures were chosen as metrics describing the cities emission impact on regional air pollution. Due to urban emissions, significant ozone titration occurs over cities while over rural areas remote from cities, ozone production is modeled, mainly in terms of number of exceedances and accumulated exceedances over the threshold of 40 ppbv. Urban NO x , SO 2 and PM 2.5 emissions also significantly contribute to concentrations in the cities themselves (up to 50-70 % for NO x and SO 2 , and up to 60 % for PM 2.5 ), but the contribution is large over rural areas as well (10-20 %). Although air pollution over cities is largely determined by the local urban emissions, considerable (often a few tens of %) fraction of the concentration is attributable to other sources from rural areas and minor cities. For the case of Prague (Czech Republic capital), it is further shown that the inter-urban interference between large cities does not play an important role which means that the impact on a chosen city of emissions from all other large cities is very small. At last, it is shown that to achieve significant ozone reduction over cities in central Europe, the emission control strategies have to focus on the reduction of NMVOC, as reducing NO x (due to suppressed titration) often leads to increased O 3 . The influence over rural areas is however always in favor of improved air quality, i.e. both NO x and/or NMVOC reduction ends up in decreased ozone pollution, mainly in terms of exceedances.

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Section: Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

2016

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“…The MM5 model has been used worldwide in several regional climate studies (Leung and Ghan, 1999;Boo et al, 2004;Leung et al, 2004;Van Dijck et al, 2005), and CHIMERE has also been applied in climate change impact assessment studies at the European level Meleux et al, 2007;Szopa et al, 2006). The MM5/CHIMERE modelling system has been also widely applied and validated in several air quality studies in Portugal (Monteiro et al, 2005(Monteiro et al, , 2007Borrego et al, 2008), showing quality indicators within the range found in several model evaluation studies using different chemical transport models Stern et al, 2008). The MM5 mesoscale model is a nonhydrostatic, vertical sigma-coordinate model designed to simulate mesoscale atmospheric circulations.…”

Section: Air Quality Modelling Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century, with special reference to Portugal

Carvalho

Monteiro

Solman³

et al. 2010

Environmental Science & Policy

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“…Such quantitative evaluations based on statistical analysis are widely used for air quality models and in particular for the simulation of ozone concentrations (Borrego et al, 2008). Even if standard procedure or performance standards do not exist, some statistical indicators are commonly used.…”

Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even if standard procedure or performance standards do not exist, some statistical indicators are commonly used. Combining different statistical parameters helps to understand models limitations and provides a support for model intercomparison (Borrego et al, 2008). A compilation of recommended statistical parameters has been provided by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA, 2007) but is also available at the European level (i.e.…”

Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of the mineral dust content over Western Africa from the event to the annual scale with the CHIMERE-DUST model

et al. 2011

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Abstract.The chemistry and transport model CHIMERE-DUST have been used to simulate the mineral dust cycle over the Sahara in 2006. Surface measurements deployed during the AMMA field campaign allow to test the capability of the model to correctly reproduce the atmospheric dust load and surface concentrations from the daily to the seasonal time-scale. The simulated monthly mean Aerosol Optical Depths (AOD) and surface concentrations are significantly correlated with the measured ones. The simulated daily concentrations and hourly AOD are in the same range of magnitude than the observed ones despite relatively high simulated dust emissions. The level of agreement between the simulations and the observations has been quantified at different time scales using statistical parameters classically used to evaluate air quality models. The capability of the model to reproduce the altitude of the dust transport was tested for two contrasted cases of low and high altitude transport. These results highlight the sensitivity of the simulations to the surface winds used as external forcing and the necessity to further constrain the dust mass budget at the regional scale.

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Procedures for estimation of modelling uncertainty in air quality assessment

Cited by 106 publications

References 28 publications

On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century, with special reference to Portugal

Simulation of the mineral dust content over Western Africa from the event to the annual scale with the CHIMERE-DUST model

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