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Non-technical summaryThe rapidly increasing investment in information and communication technologies (ICT) and the fast diffusion of the internet during the past decade have entailed widespread hopes about a 'New Economy' ensuring large productivity gains and persistent output growth. Only the more recent economic downturn and the breakdown of once highly praised businesses have put these hopes into perspective.In order to get a more robust picture of the productivity effects of ICT, the potential insights from using aggregate statistics have turned out to be limited. The growth of real output of the most intensive ICT-using industries, like the service sector, is frequently understated by official statistics due to problems in accounting for quality changes appropriately. Moreover, aggregate statistics contain little information about complementary efforts by firms, like organizational changes and process re-engineering, which have been found to be important accompanying efforts for a productive use of the new technologies.Consequently, the empirical literature on the productivity impacts of ICT has been increasingly focussing on evidence at the firm-level. Since the mid 1990s, most of these studies have found evidence of significant productivity contributions of ICT. The quantitative results of these studies, however, differ to a large extent. These differences are not only due to varying samples of firms and to diverse definitions of ICT capital but also due to differences in the quantitative techniques that have been employed.In this paper, the importance of choosing the right methodological approach is explored in more detail. A variety of interfering factors like differing management abilities, measurement errors, simultaneity of input and output decisions by firms as well as business cycles may lead to distortions in the quantitative results. These effects are illustrated by applying different econometric techniques to a representative sample of observations from German service firms over the period from 1994 to 1999. The empirical analysis yields evidence that, once all the mentioned interfering influences are controlled for, ICT is found to have enhanced productivity in German services. However, these effects are substantially smaller than those obtained in various existing studies on the topic.What's Spurious, What's Real? Measuring the Productivity Impacts of ICT at the Firm-Level §
Thomas HempellCentre for Euro...