Profitability and Distribution: The Origin of the Brazilian Economic and Political Crisis

Abstract

The PT governments combined elements of developmentalism and neoliberalism in a contradictory construction, organizing a large political coalition of workers and capitalists that allowed expanding the real wage and reducing poverty and inequality while maintaining the gains of productive and financing capitals. The decline of profitability after the 2008 crisis broke the class coalition constructed during Lula’s administration. The Dilma Rousseff government adopted a series of fiscal stimuli for private capital accumulation with meager economic growth. After her reelection, the government implemented an austerity program that resulted in negative growth rates. With the deepening economic crisis and without political support, Rousseff was removed from power. Os governos do PT combinaram elementos de desenvolvimentismo e neoliberalismo em uma construção contraditória, organizando uma grande coalizão política de trabalhadores e capitalistas que permitiu expandir o salário real e reduzir a pobreza e a desigualdade, mantendo os ganhos dos capitais produtivos e financeiros. O declínio da lucratividade após a crise de 2008 quebrou a coalizão de classes construída durante o governo Lula. O governo Dilma Rousseff adotou uma série de estímulos fiscais para a acumulação de capital privado com escasso crescimento econômico. Após sua reeleição, o governo implementou um programa de austeridade que resultou em taxas de crescimento negativas. Com o aprofundamento da crise econômica e sem apoio político, Dilma foi afastada do poder.

The Long Expansion and the Profit Squeeze: Output and Profit Cycles in Brazil (1996–2016)

“…The present paper is an attempt to contribute to the sparse efforts that make use of the approach developed by Weisskopf (1979) to uncover cyclical dynamics-such as the works of Henley (1987), Bakir and Campbell (2006, 2017), and Cámara (2013, all of them focused on updating the framework for the more recent US cycles-and to analyze whether his results are valid for other periods and economies, especially peripheral ones. It should be mentioned as well that the present research is also related to other attempts to interpret the current Brazilian crisis by focusing on the trajectory of the profit rate, like Rocca andSantos Jr. (2014), Pinto et al (2016), Martins (2017), and Marquetti, Hoff, and Miebach (2020).…”

The Rate of Surplus Value in Brazil, 1996–2016

“…Although this paper does not aim to analyze the Brazilian profit rate, as this (as previously mentioned) would imply estimating not only the rate of surplus value but also the capacity/capital ratio and the rate of capacity utilization, it is interesting to mention that these last two variables declined in Dilma's first term according to Marquetti, Hoff, and Miebach (2020). According to these authors, between 2010 and 2014 the capacity utilization in Brazil fell by 1.28 percent per year.…”

“…According toMarquetti, Hoff, and Miebach (2020), the Brazilian economy capacity/capital ratio also declined between 2010 and 2014 (−0.79 percent), which also contributed to the rate of profit fall during this period.20 Joaquim Levy, former president of Bradesco Asset Management, a division of Bradesco, Brazil's second largest private bank, who holds a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago, is considered one of the most orthodox economists in Brazil.…”

Determinantes da intensidade tecnológica das exportações estaduais no período de ascensão do preço das commodities

“…Isso resultou em redução da competitividade do setor industrial brasileiro ante o mercado externo, que induziu à substituição da produção doméstica por importações. Para Marquetti et al, (2020), a queda da taxa de lucro neste período gerou descontentamento de classes que davam sustentação política ao governo 10 .…”