This paper investigates the profit rate in Brazil between 1953 and 2003. There was a tendency for the profit rate to fall during the period under study determined mainly by the declining productivity of capital. There were three phases in the behavior of the profit rate. In the first phase, between 1953 and 1973, it slowly declined; in the second, from 1973 to late 1980s, it fell sharply; in the third, from late 1989 to 2003, it increased moderately. These phases correspond to the institutional arrangements of the Brazilian economy, respectively, to the import substitution industrialization (ISI) during the golden age of capitalism, to the crisis and rupture of ISI, and to neoliberalism.JEL classification: E25, N16, O30
The long-run relationship between real wages and labor productivity is investigated using cointegration and Granger non-causality tests for the US economy over the period 1869-1999. The series are cointegrated, indicating that there is a link between real wages and labor productivity in the long run. Granger non-causality tests support unidirectional causation from real wages to labor productivity. This outcome corroborates the conception that increases in real wages drive profit-seeking capitalists to raise labor productivity as their main weapon in defending their profitability. This result is consistent with a long tradition among economists that perceives technical change as being biased toward labor-saving.
The PT governments combined elements of developmentalism and neoliberalism in a contradictory construction, organizing a large political coalition of workers and capitalists that allowed expanding the real wage and reducing poverty and inequality while maintaining the gains of productive and financing capitals. The decline of profitability after the 2008 crisis broke the class coalition constructed during Lula’s administration. The Dilma Rousseff government adopted a series of fiscal stimuli for private capital accumulation with meager economic growth. After her reelection, the government implemented an austerity program that resulted in negative growth rates. With the deepening economic crisis and without political support, Rousseff was removed from power. Os governos do PT combinaram elementos de desenvolvimentismo e neoliberalismo em uma construção contraditória, organizando uma grande coalizão política de trabalhadores e capitalistas que permitiu expandir o salário real e reduzir a pobreza e a desigualdade, mantendo os ganhos dos capitais produtivos e financeiros. O declínio da lucratividade após a crise de 2008 quebrou a coalizão de classes construída durante o governo Lula. O governo Dilma Rousseff adotou uma série de estímulos fiscais para a acumulação de capital privado com escasso crescimento econômico. Após sua reeleição, o governo implementou um programa de austeridade que resultou em taxas de crescimento negativas. Com o aprofundamento da crise econômica e sem apoio político, Dilma foi afastada do poder.
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