We have analyzed a series of 124 young men with Hodgkin's Disease in an attempt to clarify the role of non-invasive tests in the staging evaluation. Data are presented in a way which permits comparison between series and application of the data to decision-making models. Analysis of the data shows our patients to have had primarily limited (stage I and 11) disease. In our hands certain tests were quite accurate in predicting the absence of abdominal disease (lymphangiography, hepatic scintigraphy) as determined by laparotomy, but no study appeared to eliminate the need for laparotomy in this group.
EVERAL RECENT REPORTS HAVE EMPHASIZEDS the role of decision analysis in the initial management of patients with Hodgkin's Disease. 16917 This type of approach, while theoretically attractive, suffers because data have not been presented in the medical literature in a way that permits their incorporation into a decision analysis model. There have been, for instance, no studies of the expensive, non-invasive diagnostic tests usually performed on Hodgkin's patients where the data were analyzed by methods usually recommended to evaluate a diagnostic test. Such methods include presentation of the sensitivity and specificity of the test along with the "prior probability" of disease in the population under study. of diagnostic tests, along with data on the population under study are available, then the efficacy of any diagnostic test can be rationally evaluated using standard techniques. Such data also permit more intensive scrutiny of inter-institution variability and facilitate testing of decision-making models.We have evaluated the characteristics of several non-invasive tests in a large, untreated population of patients with Hodgkin's disease. By comparing test results with operative findings we have determined the sensitivity and specificity of these tests vis a' vis abdominal disease as defined by laparotomy. Additionally, our data are based solely on young men. This permits determination of the "prior probability" of abdominal involvement in this group. Data from our series can now be compared with data from different patient populations.We have also examined the other large series in the literature which report data on non-invasive tests in Hodgkin's disease. T o encourage other authors to present data in this form we have determined, when possible, test sensitivities and specificities. We have also presented data on the "predictive accuracy" of the diagnostic tests. The clinically important "predictive accuracy'' can be calculated for any test on any given patient if the sensitivity, specificity, and prior probability are known. These data can now be combined with other clinical parameters and their effect on treatment and survival measured.