Prognozy Kombinowane W Testowaniu Obejmowania Modeli Ekonometrycznych – Przykład Empiryczny

Abstract

In the paper, the author considers the situation in which several econometric models of the same variable are available. Then the main problem is to select the best model. For this purpose they are generally used measures of model fit to the empirical data. An alternative approach is testing of encompassing. In the paper, the author presents theoretical considerations about forecast encompassing. In this case we can use combined forecasts being weighted average of individual forecasts determined on the basis of competing models The illustration of theoretical considerations is the empirical example, in which the costs of heat and electricity production in a power plant B are modeling and forecasting. Słowa kluczowe: model ekonometryczny, obejmowanie modeli względem prognoz, prognozy kombinowane, testowanie obejmowania modeli.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Air Transport Passenger Markets-Implications for Selected EU Airports Based on Time Series Models Analysis

“…As the forecasts estimated with the use of the above methods differ in terms of values, it was decided to use a combined forecast. This was a weighted average of individual forecasts derived from competing models [46]. An alternative to the traditional approach is to aggregate information from different forecasting methods by aggregating forecasts.…”