Progress in NTHMP Hazard Assessment

González, F. I.; Titov, Vasily V.; Mofjeld, Harold O.; Venturato, Angie J.; Simmons, R. Scott; Hansen, R. A.; Combellick, R. A.; Eisner, Richard K.; Hoirup, D. F.; Yanagi, Brian S.; Yong, Sterling; Darienzo, Mark E.; Priest, George R.; Crawford, George L.; Walsh, Timothy J.

doi:10.1007/1-4020-3607-8_6

Cited by 13 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…In this case, tsunami modeling begins with a limited amount of initial information on earthquake rupture (typically moment magnitude and hypocentral location) soon after the event occurs. The second application is hazard assessment, in the form of inundation maps that use either a maximum credible source (Tinti and Armigliato, 2003;González et al, 2005) or a probabilistic assessment that includes all relevant sources and associated uncertainty (Rikitake and Aida, 1988;Ward, 2002;Geist and Parsons, 2006). We call this latter application assessment models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake on Tsunami Forecast and Assessment Models for Great Subduction-Zone Earthquakes

Geist

Titov

Arcas

et al. 2007

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which deepocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M Ͼ9 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. This proxy model performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on endmember estimates for average slip and rupture length (M w 9.0-9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (M w 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release (ϳ9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the exponential time constant of slip is less than approximately 1 hr. Overall, there is significant variation in assessed runup heights caused by quantifiable uncertainty in both first-order source parameters (e.g., rupture length, slip-length scaling) and spatiotemporal complexity of earthquake rupture.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake on Tsunami Forecast and Assessment Models for Great Subduction-Zone Earthquakes

Geist

Titov

Arcas

et al. 2007

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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“…Furthermore, tsunami evacuation zones for Hawai'i (Curtis, 1991) may be inadequate to protect the at-risk populations from large destructive tsunamis such as, but not limited to, the events of December 26, 2004. However, these 1-dimensional maps are being updated with improved 2-dimensional maps (Gonzalez et al, 2005). Lander and Lockridge (1989) reported that 26 damaging tsunamis have occurred in the Hawaiian Islands since A.D. 1819 (i.e., waves with run up heights of >1 m), with the most recent deadly and devastating local and distant tsunamis occurring in 1975, respectively (Eaton et al, 1961Lachman et al, 1961;Cox and Mink, 1963;Lander and Lockridge, 1989).…”

Section: Hawai'imentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami Warnings: Understanding in Hawai‘i

et al. 2006

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The devastating southeast Asian tsunami of December 26, 2004 has brought home the destructive consequences of coastal hazards in an absence of effective warning systems. Since the 1946 tsunami that destroyed much of Hilo, Hawai'i, a network of pole mounted sirens has been used to provide an early public alert of future tsunamis. However, studies in the 1960s showed that understanding of the meaning of siren soundings was very low and that ambiguity in understanding had contributed to fatalities in the 1960 tsunami that again destroyed much of Hilo. The Hawaiian public has since been exposed to monthly tests of the sirens for more than 25 years and descriptions of the system have been widely published in telephone books for at least 45 years. However, currently there remains some uncertainty in the level of public understanding of the sirens and their implications for behavioral response. Here, we show from recent surveys of Hawai'i residents that awareness of the siren tests and test frequency is high, but these factors do not equate with increased understanding of the meaning of the siren, which remains disturbingly low (13%). Furthermore, the length of time people have lived in Hawai'i is not correlated systematically with understanding of the meaning of the sirens.An additional issue is that warning times for tsunamis generated locally in Hawai'i will be of the order of minutes to tens of minutes and limit the immediate utility of the sirens. Natural warning signs of such tsunamis may provide the earliest warning to residents. Analysis of a survey subgroup from Hilo suggests that awareness of natural signs is only moderate, and a majority may expect notification via alerts provided by official sources. We conclude that a major change is needed in tsunami education, even in Hawai'i, to increase public understanding of, and effective response to, both future official alerts and natural warning signs of future tsunamis.

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“…A tsunami inundation map representing a source-and community-specific "credible worst case scenario" is a powerful planning and hazard mitigation tool (Gonzalez et al, 2002). They also reveal that the Mapping Program and increasing the usefulness of inundation mapping products to emergency managers.…”

Section: Tsunami Inundation Limits and Runup Level Mappingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inundation mapping – a study based on December 2004 Tsunami Hazard along Chennai coast, Southeast India

Kumar

Murugan

Krishnamurthy

et al. 2008

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Tsunami impact study has been undertaken along Chennai coast starting from Pulicat to Kovalam. The study area Chennai coast is mainly devoted to prepare large scale action plan maps on tsunami inundation incorporating land use details derived from satellite data along with cadastral data using a GIS tool. Under tsunami inundation mapping along Chennai coast an integrated approach was adopted to prepare thematic maps on land use/land cover and coastal geomorphology using multispectral remote sensing data. The RTK dGPS instruments are used to collect elevation contour data at 0.5 m intervals for the Chennai coast. The GIS tool has been used to incorporate the elevation data, tsunami inundation markings obtained immediately after tsunami and thematic maps derived from remote sensing data. The outcome of this study provides an important clue on variations in tsunami inundation along Chennai coast, which is mainly controlled by local geomorphologic set-up, coastal zone elevation including coastal erosion protection measures and near shore bathymetry. This study highlights the information regarding most vulnerable areas of tsunami and also provides indication to demarcate suitable sites for rehabilitation.

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Progress in NTHMP Hazard Assessment

Cited by 13 publications

References 3 publications

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake on Tsunami Forecast and Assessment Models for Great Subduction-Zone Earthquakes

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake on Tsunami Forecast and Assessment Models for Great Subduction-Zone Earthquakes

Tsunami Warnings: Understanding in Hawai‘i

Inundation mapping – a study based on December 2004 Tsunami Hazard along Chennai coast, Southeast India

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