Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change

Shi, Xiaoli; Wei, Wang; Shi, Wenjiao

doi:10.1007/s11442-016-1272-5

Cited by 22 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…This study's conclusion differs from the conclusions of prior studies, which report that the development of urbanization pushes cropland abandonment in mountainous areas [51,68]. The possible reasons for this different result are as follows: as the margins of urban areas continue to expand, cropland gradually moves to higher altitudes [71]. Thus, mountainous cropland becomes important to ensure global food security.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 92%

Landslides and Cropland Abandonment in China’s Mountainous Areas: Spatial Distribution, Empirical Analysis and Policy Implications

Deng

Zeng

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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Cropland, as the largest land use type in the human landscape, contributes to not only biodiversity but also global food security. However, cropland abandonment not only is harmful to agricultural cultural landscapes but also threatens food security. Prior studies have suggested that changes in the social environment drive farmers to abandon cropland. In contrast, this study reveals that factors of the natural environment (e.g., landslides) have steadily and significantly affected cropland abandonment after controlling the factors of the social environment. More specifically, based on the survey data of a large sample of 4850 mountainous households in 24 provinces of China and following the theoretical framework of “environment → land use”, this study quantitatively identified the impacts of landslides on cropland abandonment in mountainous areas using the Probit and Tobit models. The results show that: (1) There is a similar spatial agglomeration trend between landslides and cropland abandonment. Namely, an area that has a high incidence of landslides also has a high incidence of cropland abandonment. (2) There is a significant and positive correlation between landslides and cropland abandonment. Namely, compared with peasants who have not suffered from landslides, the probability that peasants suffering from landslides will abandon cropland and the area abandoned increase by 6.8% and 0.064 mu, respectively. (3) Elderly farmers (over 64 years old) and the development of urbanization help curb cropland abandonment in the mountains. The results of this study may provide reference for the government to implement effective policies for managing landslides and revitalizing unused cropland resources.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 92%

Landslides and Cropland Abandonment in China’s Mountainous Areas: Spatial Distribution, Empirical Analysis and Policy Implications

Deng

Zeng

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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“…In terms of regional selection, studies have been carried out in regions where the coupling effect between vegetation and climate change and human activities is typical within the fluctuation area of the 400 mm annual precipitation line, for example on the Loess Plateau [14][15][16], in the northeast of China [17,18], on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau [19][20][21]. Shi et al [22] have found that climate change and human activities had a significant driving effect on the boundary change of the northern farming-pastoral ecotone, and some studies quantitatively analyzed the impacts of climate change and human activities on arable land [23,24]. Sun et al [25] have found that vegetation coverage on the Loess Plateau showed a significant upward trend in the past three decades under the influence of human activities, mainly ecological restoration projects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Relations of Vegetation, Climate Change, and Human Activity: A Case Study in the 400 mm Annual Precipitation Fluctuation Zone, China

Xie

Qin

et al. 2019

Remote Sensing

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The 400 mm annual precipitation fluctuation zone (75°55′–127°6′E and 26°55′–53°6′N) is located in central and western China, which is a transition area from traditional agricultural to animal husbandry. It is extremely sensitive to climatic changes. The corresponding changes of the ecosystem, represented by vegetation, under the dual influences of climate change and human activities are important issues in the study of the regional ecological environment. Based on the Savitzky–Golay (S–G) filtering method, the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset (NDVI3g) was reconstructed in this paper. Sen’s slope estimation, Mann–Kendall (M–K), multiple regression residual analysis, and the Hurst index were used to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation; in addition, the future persistence characteristics of the vegetation changes trend were analyzed. Vegetation changes in the study area had an obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity. On an annual scale, the vegetation increased considerably, with a growth rate of 0.50%/10a. The multi-year mean value of NDVI and growth rate of cultivated land were the highest, followed by the forest land and grassland. On a seasonal scale, the vegetation cover increased most significantly in autumn, followed by spring and summer. In the southeastern and central parts of the study area, the vegetation cover increased significantly (P < 0.05), while it decreased significantly in the northeastern and southwestern parts. In summer, the NDVI value of all vegetation types (cultivated land, forest land and grassland) reached the maximum. The change rate of NDVI value for cultivated land reached the highest in autumn (1.57%/10a), forest land reached the highest in spring (1.15%/10a), and grassland reached the highest in autumn (0.49%/10a). The NDVI of cultivated land increased in all seasons, while forest land (−0.31%/10a) and grassland (−0.009%/10a) decreased in winter. Partial correlation analysis between vegetation and precipitation, temperature found that the areas with positive correlation accounted for 66.29% and 55.05% of the total area, respectively. Under the influence of climate change alone, 62.79% of the study area showed an increasing tendency, among which 46.79% showed a significant upward trend (P < 0.05). The NDVI decreased in 37.21% of the regions and decreased significantly in 14.88% of the regions (P < 0.05). Under the influence of human activities alone, the vegetation in the study area showed an upward trend in 59.61%, with a significant increase in 41.35% (P < 0.05), a downward trend in 40.39%, and a significant downward trend in 7.95% (P < 0.05). Vegetation growth is highly unstable and prone to drastic changes, depending on the environmental conditions.

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“…At the same time, it is necessary to consider comprehensively runoff production and dissipation, mountains and plains, and deserts and oases when producing land surface parameterization improvement programs; to develop a multi-scale and multi-objective hydrological model merging method; to construct a mountains-oases-deserts coupling, distributed regional water cycle model with land pattern features that fit arid areas and a river basin hydrological and water resource model based on mountain meltwater and precipitation. This allows quantitative identification of the impact of climate change and human activities on the water resource systems of arid areas (Li et al, 2016b;Shi et al, 2016), investigation of the possible major effects of spatio-temporal changes to water resources on socio-economic systems and ecosystems in arid areas, and predictions of scientific water cycle laws and water resource changing trends for arid areas.…”

Section: Bi-directional Coupling Of High-resolution Regional Climate mentioning

confidence: 99%

Water resource formation and conversion and water security in arid region of Northwest China

Chen

et al. 2016

J. Geogr. Sci.

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Climate change and water resource issues are global problems of common concern to the international community, and they are major bottlenecks affecting the eco-environment and sustainable socioeconomic development in the arid region of Northwest China. On the basis of results from previous studies, this paper points out that the unique landscape of Northwest China increases the complexity and uncertainty of the climate system. This paper analyzes the key constraints on socioeconomic development and ecological security in the region, discusses the impact of climate change on water resources in Northwest China, identifies common themes and the main problems present in research on climate change and water resources in the arid northwest region, and finally, based on the importance and urgency of conducting research on the region's water resources, proposes scientific problems that need to be addressed: first, the impact of climate change on the formation, conversion and future trends of water resources in the region; second, bidirectional coupling of high-resolution regional climate models and water cycle models of arid region land surface patterns; third, the impact of climate change and human activities on water resources of the arid northwest region. Through consideration and discussion of the above, this paper seeks to further clarify specific areas of research on pressing issues related to climate change and water resources in Northwest China, so as to establish a solid scientific basis for significantly enhancing our ability to respond to climate change and water shortages.

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Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change

Cited by 22 publications

References 43 publications

Landslides and Cropland Abandonment in China’s Mountainous Areas: Spatial Distribution, Empirical Analysis and Policy Implications

Landslides and Cropland Abandonment in China’s Mountainous Areas: Spatial Distribution, Empirical Analysis and Policy Implications

Estimating Relations of Vegetation, Climate Change, and Human Activity: A Case Study in the 400 mm Annual Precipitation Fluctuation Zone, China

Water resource formation and conversion and water security in arid region of Northwest China

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