Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis: a case study of Indian oil refinery

Dey, Prasanta Kumar

doi:10.1080/09537287.2011.586379

Cited by 104 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The risks we consider in this study all have negative or undesirable consequences for the focal project, in line with standard project management practice (Maguire and Hardy 2013;Oehmen et al 2014). The outcomes that result from the decision to carry out the project are always influenced by occurring risks (Raz et al 2002), such that increasing risk impacts and risk occurrence probabilities mitigate the value of the decision to conduct the project (Dey 2012). If project success is compliance with a specific outcome, which has specific value to the company, then anticipated project success should decrease with greater risk impacts and risk occurrence probabilities.…”

Section: Hypothesis Developmentmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…An insufficient consideration of risk will lead to deviations between anticipated and actual project success, which results in higher project failure rates. Expected utility models such as prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky 1979;Tversky and Kahneman 1992) or more simple expectancy value models such as the expected monetary value analysis, which is commonly applied in project management (Dey 2012;PMI 2008), would predict that both risk occurrence probabilities and risk impacts have a similar influence on the decision to carry out a project. However, Brandstätter et al (2006) suggest in their priority heuristic that people do not base their decisions on internal calculations of occurrence probability and related outcomes, but focus primarily on outcomes before considering probabilities (Brandstätter et al 2006;Brandstätter and Gussmack 2013;Glöckner and Betsch 2008).…”

Section: H1bmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Project managers’ overconfidence: how is risk reflected in anticipated project success?

Fabricius

Büttgen

2015

Bus Res

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Projects tend to exceed planned timelines and budgets. One reason may be that potential project risks are insufficiently reflected in anticipations of project success. Furthermore, project managers’ overconfidence may lead them to assess risk in a biased manner. The present study examines how risk assessment relates to overall anticipated project success and how overconfidence on the part of project managers influences such assessments. We assume that project managers’ risk awareness serves as a mediator between overconfidence and risk assessment. To observe the planning behavior of 204 project managers, we used a standardized, case-based survey. The results show that overconfidence reduces risk awareness among project managers, leading them to assess risks more optimistically and come to more positive conclusions about anticipated project success. When judging project success, project managers only consider the probability of a risk occurring; they do not factor in the impact of said risks on project success should the risks arise. Risks thus seem to be insufficiently reflected in anticipations of project success which might be a reason for high failure rates of projects.

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Section: Hypothesis Developmentmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: H1bmentioning

confidence: 99%

Project managers’ overconfidence: how is risk reflected in anticipated project success?

Fabricius

Büttgen

2015

Bus Res

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“…Examples: SWOT Analysis (Wu, 2006), Brainstorming, Decision Tree (Dey, 2012), FMEA (Stamatis, 2003).…”

Section: Applying Processes Of Planning Process Group To Academic Resmentioning

confidence: 99%

Project Management Principles Applied in Academic Research Projects

Mustaro

Rossi

2013

IISIT

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The achievement of academic research involves a series of steps and activities that must be managed in order to avoid delays, development problems (due to unforeseen risks) and even monitoring (which involves the work of the Advisor). Aiming to contribute to project development for academic research, this paper presents some principles of project management considering project management theories and also presenting many frameworks on this area. The PMBoK (Project Management Body of Knowledge) developed by the PMI (Project Management Institute) is presented in more details because it was used to define part of main specific proposals of this paper. Two (Initiating and Planning Process Groups) from the five process groups defined by the framework are presented and also their correlation to academic projects. This is relevant to formalize all activities and artifacts during an academic project. Besides that, the Knowledge Areas (KA) defined by the framework are also presented in details. The relationship between these KA's and the Initiating and Planning Process Groups are discussed in a viewpoint of academic research stakeholders. Specifics templates by KA are proposed to be used in this kind of projects and to support the student's academic journey conducted by an Advisor.

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“…It enables optimal solution to short time dynamic decision problems [6]. Dey [10] illustrates the use of DT to choose strategies of risk mitigation using the Expected Monetary Values (EMVs). Based on decision variables, decision trees help choosing one way and to react accordingly in front of an event.…”

Section: The Decision Process In Project Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

A risk oriented model to assess strategic decisions in new product development projects

Marmier

Gourc

Laarz

2013

Decision Support Systems

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The project management team has to respect contractual commitments, in terms of deadlines and budgets, that are often two antagonistic objectives. At the same time, the market becomes more and more demanding as far as costs and delays are concerned while expecting a high quality level. Then, the project management team has to continuously consider novelty and a risk management strategy in order to determine the best balance between benefits and risks. Based on the principles of a synchronized process between risk management and project management, and on the concepts of risk scenario, we propose a decision-making tool to help the project manager choose the best way to improve project success rate while controlling the level of risks. As a finding, the project manager would be able to evaluate and compare different novelties or development strategies taking into account their repercussions on potential risks and risk treatment strategies. Finally, a case study in the aerospace industry and specifically on satellite integration and tests is developed to validate this approach.

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Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis: a case study of Indian oil refinery

Cited by 104 publications

References 41 publications

Project managers’ overconfidence: how is risk reflected in anticipated project success?

Project managers’ overconfidence: how is risk reflected in anticipated project success?

Project Management Principles Applied in Academic Research Projects

A risk oriented model to assess strategic decisions in new product development projects

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