Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers

Abstract

Most prior climate change assessments for U.S. agriculture have focused on major world food crops such as wheat and maize. While useful from a national and global perspective, these results are not particularly relevant to the Northeastern U.S. agriculture economy, which is dominated by dairy milk production, and high-value horticultural crops such as apples (Malus domestica), grapes (Vitis vinifera), sweet corn (Zea mays var. rugosa), cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata), and maple syrup (sugar maple, Acer saccharum). We used statistically downscaled climate projections generated by the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, run with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future emissions scenarios A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower), to evaluate several climate thresholds of direct relevance to agriculture in the region. A longer (frostfree) growing season could create new opportunities for farmers with enough capital to take risks on new crops (assuming a market for new crops can be developed). However, our results indicate that many crops will have yield losses associated with increased frequency of high temperature stress, inadequate winter chill period for optimum fruiting in spring, increased pressure from marginally over-wintering and/or invasive weeds, insects, or disease, or other factors. Weeds are likely to benefit more than cash crops from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Projections of thermal heat index values for dairy cows Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change (2008) indicate a substantial potential negative impact on milk production. At the higher compared to lower emissions scenario, negative climate change effects will occur sooner, and impact a larger geographic area within the region. Farmer adaptations to climate change will not be cost-or risk-free, and the impact on individual farm families and rural communities will depend on commodity produced, available capital, and timely, accurate climate projections.

Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands

“…Crop growth models are a commonly used tool to assess the effects of elevated CO 2 levels and climate change on agricultural yields (e.g., Adams et al 1995;Reilly 2002;Reilly et al 2003;Parry et al 2004;Porter and Semenov 2005;Wolfe et al 2008;Rosenzweig et al 1996;Downing et al 2000). The results from these studies show positive and negative impacts on yields.…”

“…These model studies provide valuable insight into the effects of biological processes influenced by temperature and CO 2 increase; unfortunately, they often do not include all factors that determine actual crop yields (Wolfe et al 2008;). This also makes results from modeling studies difficult to translate into actual changes in regional productivity (Ewert et al 2002;).…”

Indiana ’s Agriculture in a Changing Climate: A Report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment

“…Energy requirements for a cow increase 22 percent as the temperature rises from 60°F to 90°F. Research suggests that an Indiana cow that produces 32 kg of milk per day will see a decline of up to 4 kg per day by mid-century (Wolfe et al 2008). …”

Adaptation in Agriculture

“…CC can alter the pattern and incidence of weeds, pests and pathogens, in turn affecting crop and livestock performance and input cost [14,[47][48][49].…”

“…Herbicides and tillage are widely used weed control methods [49,50]. Smith and Menalled [50] stated that integrated weed management, such as banding fertilizer near crop rows and applying it at the appropriate time, can help in adaptation, as well as can strategies such as reducing weed invasion and emergence, preventing weed reproduction, and minimizing the competition between weed and crops [50].…”