Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

Pal, Sujan; Wang, Jiali; Feinstein, Jeremy; Yan, Eugene; Kotamarthi, V. R.

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101371

Cited by 6 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 65 publications

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“…Advancements in high‐performance computing have allowed for greater use of downscaled regional climate simulations at convection‐permitting resolutions on decadal time scales (Ban et al., 2021; Gensini et al., 2023; Hoogewind et al., 2017; Leutwyler et al., 2017; Liu et al., 2017; Pal et al., 2023; Pichelli et al., 2021; Wallace & Minder, 2021). These studies highlight the enhanced ability of convection‐permitting models at capturing the correct timing, frequency, and amount of precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decomposing the Precipitation Response to Climate Change in Convection Allowing Simulations Over the Conterminous United States

Wallace,

Haberlie,

Ashley

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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Explicit representation of finer‐scale processes can affect the sign and magnitude of the precipitation response to climate change between convection‐permitting and convection‐parameterizing models. We compare precipitation across two 15‐year epochs, a historical (HIST) and an end‐of‐21st‐century (EoC85), between a set of dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations at 3.75 km grid spacing (WRF) and bias‐corrected Community Earth System Model (CESM) output used to initialize and force the lateral boundaries of the downscaled simulations. In the historical climate, the downscaled simulations demonstrate less overall error than CESM when compared to observations for most portions of the conterminous United States. Both sets of simulations overestimate the incidence of environments with moderate to high precipitable water while CESM generally simulates rainfall that is too frequent but less intense. Within both sets of simulations, EoC85 rainfall amounts decrease in low‐moisture environments due to reduced rainfall frequency and intensity while rainfall amounts increase in high‐moisture environments as they occur more often. Overall, reductions in rainfall are stronger in WRF than in CESM, particularly during the warm season. This reduced drying in CESM is attributed to relatively higher rainfall frequency in environments with high concentrations of precipitable water and weak vertical motion. As a result, an increase in the occurrence of high moisture environments in EoC85 naturally favors more rainfall in CESM than WRF. Our results present an in‐depth examination of the characteristics of changes in overall accumulated precipitation and highlight an extra dimension of uncertainty when comparing convection‐permitting models against convection‐parameterizing models.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decomposing the Precipitation Response to Climate Change in Convection Allowing Simulations Over the Conterminous United States

Wallace,

Haberlie,

Ashley

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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Floods of Egypt’s Nile in the 21st century

Badawy,

Sultan,

Abdelmohsen

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Extreme precipitation and flooding events are rising globally, necessitating a thorough understanding and sustainable management of water resources. One such setting is the Nile River’s source areas, where high precipitation has led to the filling of Lake Nasser (LN) twice (1998–2003; 2019–2022) in the last two decades and the diversion of overflow to depressions west of the Nile, where it is lost mainly to evaporation. Using temporal satellite-based data, climate models, and continuous rainfall-runoff models, we identified the primary contributor to increased runoff that reached LN in the past two decades and assessed the impact of climate change on the LN’s runoff throughout the twenty-first century. Findings include: (1) the Blue Nile subbasin (BNS) is the primary contributor to increased downstream runoff, (2) the BNS runoff was simulated in the twenty-first century using a calibrated (1965–1992) rainfall-runoff model with global circulation models (GCMs), CCSM4, HadGEM3, and GFDL-CM4.0, projections as model inputs, (3) the extreme value analysis for projected runoff driven by GCMs’ output indicates extreme floods are more severe in the twenty-first century, (4) one adaptation for the projected twenty-first century increase in precipitation (25–39%) and flood (2%-20%) extremes is to recharge Egypt’s fossil aquifers during high flood years.

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The ratio of mesoscale convective system precipitation to total precipitation increases in future climate change scenarios

Haberlie,

Ashley,

Gensini

et al. 2023

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a substantial source of precipitation in the eastern U.S. and may be sensitive to regional climatic change. We use a suite of convection-permitting climate simulations to examine possible changes in MCS precipitation. Specifically, annual and regional totals of MCS and non-MCS precipitation generated during a retrospective simulation are compared to end-of-21st-century simulations based on intermediate and extreme climate change scenarios. Both scenarios produce more MCS precipitation and less non-MCS precipitation, thus significantly increasing the proportion of precipitation associated with MCSs across the U.S.

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Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

Cited by 6 publications

References 65 publications

Decomposing the Precipitation Response to Climate Change in Convection Allowing Simulations Over the Conterminous United States

Decomposing the Precipitation Response to Climate Change in Convection Allowing Simulations Over the Conterminous United States

Floods of Egypt’s Nile in the 21st century

The ratio of mesoscale convective system precipitation to total precipitation increases in future climate change scenarios

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