Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

Tous, M.; Zappa, Giuseppe; Romero, R.; Shaffrey, Len; Vidale, Pier Luigi

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2941-2

Cited by 42 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…More recently, studies assessed trends of subtropical cyclones over the eastern North Atlantic and in particular over the Mediterranean using ensembles of high-resolution global and regional climate models. A common agreement of these studies is that the frequency of subtropical cyclones will decrease in both regions, though the maximum intensity is expected to increase [131][132][133][134][135][136][137][138] including stronger winds and more rainfall [139]. The projected decrease in the frequency of Mediterranean cyclones coincides with observations for past decades [140].…”

Section: Subtropical Cyclonessupporting

confidence: 70%

The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones

Catto

Ackerley

Booth

et al. 2019

Curr Clim Change Rep

118

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Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones. Keywords Extratropical cyclones. Climate change. Windstorms. Idealized model. CMIP models This article is part of the Topical Collection on Mid-latitude Processes and Climate Change

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Section: Subtropical Cyclonessupporting

confidence: 70%

The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones

Catto

Ackerley

Booth

et al. 2019

Curr Clim Change Rep

118

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Similarly, for this same scenario, Romero and Emanuel found in three GCMs (GFDL, CSIRO, MIROC, and ECHAM) about 10–40% fewer medicanes for the end of the 21st century compared with the present climate, but an increase in the frequency of violent cases was also found. Decreases in the frequency of medicanes in a warmer world have also been found with RCM simulations . In contrast, Romero and Emanuel argued that the signal of medicanes changes in the future is not clear since the total frequency of storms does not vary, but there is a projection of higher frequency of moderate and violent systems.…”

Section: Subtropical Cyclones Over the Ocean Basismentioning

confidence: 77%

“…Decreases in the frequency of medicanes in a warmer world have also been found with RCM simulations. 25,[91][92][93] In contrast, Romero and Emanuel 94 argued that the signal of medicanes changes in the future is not clear since the total frequency of storms does not vary, but there is a projection of higher frequency of moderate and violent systems. The projected increase in the vertical static stability of the atmosphere was pointed out as the main reason for the decreasing frequency of medicanes in a future warm climate.…”

Section: And Evans Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Subtropical cyclones over the oceanic basins: a review

Rocha

Reboita

Gozzo

et al. 2018

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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Subtropical cyclones are hybrid systems presenting a warm core at low levels, as tropical cyclones, and a cold core at upper levels, as extratropical cyclones. Their genesis can be as proper subtropical system or from the transitions (extratropical to subtropical or tropical to subtropical). Subtropical cyclones occur mostly over the sea and generate intense near surface winds with great impacts on human activities and ecosystems. We present a review of the main features, as obtained from observations and numerical simulations, for subtropical cyclone development over the major oceanic basins.

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“…Similar considerations can be applied for future medicanes. They are expected to decrease in frequency (Gaertner et al, ; Romero and Emanuel, ; Cavicchia et al, ; Walsh et al, ; Romera et al, ; Tous et al, ), though in this case an increase in the maximum intensities is obtained.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Subtropical cyclones near‐term projections from an ensemble of regional climate models over the northeastern Atlantic basin

González-Alemán

Gaertner

Sánchez

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Since nearly a decade ago, hybrid cyclones called subtropical cyclones (STCs) have attracted the attention of scientific and forecasting community due to their identification as damaging weather systems. Research about them has been so far focused on present climate data. A study of STCs under future climate scenarios has not been performed yet. For the first time, in this work we analyse the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate STCs in addition to searching for possible alterations in their frequency and intensity due to anthropogenic climate change over the subtropical northeastern Atlantic basin. By using an ensemble of three RCMs nested in four different global climate models (GCMs), we find that RCMs acceptably reproduce STCs (except for certain model combinations) for the historical climate period (1951–2000), giving support for the analysis of future climate results. In pure GCM simulations, no STCs are identified. For future climate conditions under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios (2001–2050), more simulations indicate a decrease in the frequency of STCs than those which find an increase. This decrease is showed to be partially due to a reduced presence of extratropical cyclones, from which they tend to form, within that region. However, no strong agreement between simulations has been obtained, and other factors like the changes in the conversion rate could affect STCs in the future. With respect to intensity, no clear tendency is found.

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Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

Cited by 42 publications

References 39 publications

The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones

The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones

Subtropical cyclones over the oceanic basins: a review

Subtropical cyclones near‐term projections from an ensemble of regional climate models over the northeastern Atlantic basin

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