Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean

Biasutti, Michela; Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Creyts, T. T.

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0254-y

Cited by 89 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…2b). There is consistency with the results of Biasutti et al (2012) who use TRMM high-resolution data to show that precipitation over the Caribbean islands is more frequent than over the adjacent ocean during the wet season months due to land-sea thermal contrast. Sobel et al (2011) also demonstrate that there is a significant increase in average island precipitation (relative to the ocean surrounding it) for large islands with mountainous topography.…”

Section: Data Models and Methodologysupporting

confidence: 85%

“…Many of these studies use coarse-resolution general circulation models (GCMs) included in the fourth assessment report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to describe large-scale climatic changes in the region (e.g., Ángeles et al, 2007;Comarazamy and González, 2008;Biasutti et al, 2012). More recently, a handful of studies have used high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) for studying climate change and its impact at spatial scales relevant for the islands (e.g., Castro et al, 2006;Centella et al, 2008;Campbell et al, 2010;Charlery and Nurse, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Karmalkar¹,

Taylor²,

Campbell³

et al. 2013

Atmósfera

104

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RESUMENLos cambios climáticos observados y proyectados tienen implicaciones socioeconómicas importantes para las islas del Caribe. El objetivo de este artículo es presentar información esencial sobre el cambio climá-tico -basada en estudios previos, observaciones disponibles y simulaciones de modelos climáticos-a escalas espaciales relevantes para las islas caribeñas. Se utilizan datos del modelo general de circulación (GCM) incluidos en el Proyecto de Comparación de Modelos Acoplados fase 3 (CMIP3), así como del modelo climático regional (RCM) del Centro Hadley del Reino Unido, para aportar tanto información actual como información basada en proyecciones sobre precipitaciones y temperatura en estados insulares específicos. Se utilizan observaciones reticuladas de estaciones y datos satelitales para estudiar el clima del siglo XX y evaluar el desempeño de los modelos climáticos. Con un enfoque centrado en la precipitación, también se analizan factores como la temperatura superficial del mar, la presión al nivel del mar y los vientos que influyen en las variaciones estacionales de la precipitación. La media del ensamble del CMIP3 y el RCM captan satisfactoriamente las peculiaridades de la circulación atmosférica de gran escala en la región, pero no así el ciclo estacional bimodal característico de la precipitación. La aridez en épocas de lluvias prevista en escenarios de cambio climático en la región se ha abordado en estudios previos, pero la magnitud de la variación es muy incierta en las simulaciones tanto del GCM como del RCM. La disminución proyectada es mayor al inicio de la temporada de lluvias y suprime la sequía del medio verano en el Caribe occidental. Las simulaciones del RCM muestran avances respecto del GCM, sobre todo por sus mejores representaciones de la extensión territorial, pero su desempeño depende en gran medida de la conducción del GCM. El presente estudio destaca la necesidad de contar con observaciones de alta resolución y comparar simulaciones de modelos climáticos para entender a fondo el cambio climático y su impacto en las pequeñas islas del Caribe. ABSTRACTObserved and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. This article attempts to present basic climate change information-based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations-at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. The CMIP3 ensemble me...

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Section: Data Models and Methodologysupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Karmalkar¹,

Taylor²,

Campbell³

et al. 2013

Atmósfera

104

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The use of this period for near term prediction has also been adopted in many other studies (e.g. Hayhoe et al, 2004;Vicuna et al, 2007;Mariotti et al, 2008;Biasutti et al, 2012;Aich et al, 2014;Lopez et al, 2014).…”

Section: Uncertainty and Limitations Of This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China

Leng

Tang

Rayburg

2015

Global and Planetary Change

416

210

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Bias corrected daily climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 emission scenarios were fed into a calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to project future hydrological changes in China. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI) were used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological, agricultural, and hydrologic perspectives. Changes in drought severity, duration, and frequency suggest that meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts will become more severe, prolonged, and frequent for 2020-2049 relative to 1971-2000, except for parts of northern and northeastern China. The frequency of long-term agricultural droughts (with duration larger than 4 months) will increase more than that of short-term droughts (with duration less than 4 months), while the opposite is projected for meteorological and hydrological droughts. In extreme cases, the most prolonged agricultural droughts increased from 6 to 26 months whereas the most prolonged meteorological and hydrological droughts changed little. The most severe hydrological drought intensity was about 3 times the baseline in general whereas the most severe meteorological and agricultural drought intensities were about 2 times and 1.5 times the baseline respectively. For the prescribed local temperature increments up to 3°C, increase of agricultural drought occurrence is predicted whereas decreases or little changes of meteorological and hydrological drought occurrences are projected for most temperature increments. The largest increase of meteorological and hydrological drought durations and intensities occurred when temperature increased by 1°C whereas agricultural drought duration and intensity tend to increase consistently with temperature increments. Our results emphasize that specific measures should be taken by specific sectors in order to better mitigate future climate change associated with specific warming amounts. It is, however, important to keep in mind that our results may depend on the emission scenario, GCMs, impact model, time periods and drought indicators selected for analysis.

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“…Recruitment rates in Gulf menhaden are highly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, with warmer and wetter winters producing comparatively fewer recruits in the next year class (Deegan 1990). Given that winter temperatures and precipitation are expected to rise under current climate change projections (Biasutti et al 2012), the availability of larval fish (e.g. Muhling et al 2011) could become more limited or more variable in future climactic conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diet composition and provisioning rates of nestlings determine reproductive success in a subtropical seabird

Lamb¹,

Satgé²,

Jodice³

2017

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean

Cited by 89 publications

References 61 publications

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China

Diet composition and provisioning rates of nestlings determine reproductive success in a subtropical seabird

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