Projected changes of summer monsoon extremes and hydroclimatic regimes over West Africa for the twenty-first century

Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Dème, Abdoulaye; Tall, Moustapha; Mariotti, Laura; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3052-4

Cited by 114 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…A list of the physical options available in RegCM4 is provided in Giorgi et al (2012). Based on previous studies over different African sub-regions (e.g., Mariotti et al 2014;Bamba et al 2015;Li et al 2015;Diallo et al 2015Diallo et al , 2016Diallo et al , 2018N'Datchoh et al 2018;Tall et al 2017) as well as a series of preliminary experiments, the following options were selected in this study: the radiation scheme from the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3; Kiehl et al 1996), the nonlocal vertical diffusion scheme of Holstag et al (1990) to represent the boundary layer processes, the sub-grid explicit moisture (SUBEX) resolvable scale precipitation scheme of Pal et al (2000), the ocean flux scheme of Zeng et al (1998), and the cumulus convection scheme of Grell et al (1994) with the Fritch-Chappell closure assumption (FC; Fritsch and Chappell 1980) to represent the convective precipitation.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The recent version of the regional climate model version 4.4 (RegCM4.4; hereafter referred to as RegCM4) N'Datchoh et al 2012N'Datchoh et al , 2018Diallo et al 2016Diallo et al , 2018Diasso and Abiodun 2017) Grell et al 1994). RegCM4 is an improved version of RegCM3 (Pal et al 2007) with multiples upgrades in the model physics parameterizations.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of the African greenbelt position on West African summer climate: a regional climate modeling study

Bamba

Diallo

N’Datchoh

et al. 2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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This modeling study is conducted to examine the potential impact of the reforestation (greenbelt) location (either in Sahel or in Guinean region) on West African summer climate system. To this end, three simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis were performed at 50 km horizontal resolution over a West African domain for the period 2000-2011. The first experiment, namely the control (CTRL), uses the standard vegetation cover, while the two others incorporate throughout the model integration, a zonal reforestation band of evergreen broadleaf over different locations: (i) over a 13°N-17°N band latitudes in a Sahel-Sahara region (experiment hereafter referred to as GB15N) and (ii) between 8. 5°N-11.5°N in the Guinea Coast region (experiment hereafter referred to as GB10N). A comparison of the CTRL experiment with observation reveals a faithful reproduction of the mean boreal and summer seasonal precipitation pattern, though substantial dry/wet biases remain, especially in the Atlantic Ocean. In addition, the seasonal cycle over sub-regions matches satisfactory the observed pattern. The GB15N reforestation leads to a precipitation increase in the range of 2-4 mm/day over the forested areas, whereas in the GB10N reforestation, precipitation increase is weaker and not necessarily located in the forested areas. Temperature cooling is observed over the reforested area and may be explained by a decrease of ground heat flux related to a reduction of the surface albedo.

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Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of the African greenbelt position on West African summer climate: a regional climate modeling study

Bamba

Diallo

N’Datchoh

et al. 2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…Many works have since then focused on the analysis of present day climatology (e.g. Nikulin et al 2012;Endris et al 2013;Kalognomou et al 2013;Kim et al 2014;Krähenmann et al 2013;Gbobaniyi et al 2014; and future projections Teichmann et al 2013;Giorgi et al 2014;Buontempo et al 2014;Mariotti et al 2014;Pinto et al 2015;Diallo et al 2016). However, all these studies focused mainly on precipitation and mean temperature, and only Giorgi et al (2014) provided explicit projections of heat waves duration, although based on the results of a single RCM.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models

Dosio

2016

Clim Dyn

128

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“…These indices characterize moderate extreme events with recurrence times of a year or less [18], i.e., events that are not record-setting and occur frequently enough to be amenable to statistical analysis, but still have substantial impacts. These indices have been widely used for analyzing changes in extremes in observational records, as well as climate change projections, e.g., [14,15,[45][46][47][48][49]. ClimPACT2 [44], a downloadable R-software package developed by ET-CRSCI that calculates a wide range of sector-specific climate indices, was used to generate extremes.…”

Section: Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation Extremes in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa

et al. 2018

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This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989-2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069-2098 compared to 1976-2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI exceed 0.5 for all except the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII). However, significant overestimations or underestimations exist over localized areas in the region. Projected changes in Total annual Precipitation (PRCPTOT) and the annual number of heavy (>10 mm) and very heavy (>20 mm) precipitation days by 2069-2098 show a general north-south pattern, with decreases over the southern half and increases over the northern half of the GHA. These changes are often greatest over parts of Somalia, Eritrea, the Ethiopian highlands and southern Tanzania. Maximum one-and five-day precipitation totals over a year and SDII (ratio of PRCPTOT to rainy days) are projected to increase over a majority of the GHA, including areas where PRCPTOT is projected to decrease, suggesting fewer, but heavier rainy days in the future. Changes in the annual sum of daily precipitation above the 95th and 99th percentiles are statistically significant over a few locations, with the largest projected decrease/increase over Eritrea and northwestern Sudan/Somalia. Projected changes in Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) suggest longer periods of dryness over the majority of the GHA, except the central portions covering northern Uganda, southern South Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia and Somalia. Substantial increases in CDD are located over southern Tanzania and the Ethiopian highlands. The magnitude and the spatial extent of statistically-significant changes in all MPEI increase from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5, and the separation between positive and negative changes becomes clearer under RCP8.5.

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Projected changes of summer monsoon extremes and hydroclimatic regimes over West Africa for the twenty-first century

Cited by 114 publications

References 77 publications

Effect of the African greenbelt position on West African summer climate: a regional climate modeling study

Effect of the African greenbelt position on West African summer climate: a regional climate modeling study

Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models

Precipitation Extremes in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa

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