Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099

Li, Su-Yuan; Miao, Lijuan; Jiang, Zhihong; Wang, Guojie; Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj; Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Hui; Fang, Ke; He, Y.; Li, Chun

doi:10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.003

Cited by 134 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The precipitation of wettest quarter, which contributed 11.6%, was another important variable to explain the distribution of H. japonica, and subclass of soil, which contributed 9.7%, was another important variable. However, under the SSP 245 and SSP 585 climate change scenarios, total annual precipitation is expected to increase slightly at a rate of 6.4 and 8.0 mm per decade, according to studies conducted by Li et al [35]. Therefore, according to our experimental results, part of the reason why the suitable distribution area of H. japonica does not change significantly in the future under the two scenarios can be explained.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

“…In the climate prediction experiment, the shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs) and representative concentration paths (RCP) were considered, and two scenarios SSP 2-RCP 4.5 (SSP 245) and SSP 5-RCP 8.5 (SSP 585) were selected for simulation. SSP 245 is the updated scenario of RCP 4.5, which uses a moderate development path, represents an intermediate level of greenhouse gas emissions and a nominal 4.5 Wm −2 radioactive forcing level by 2100 [35]; while, SSP 585 is the updated scenario of RCP 8.5, which uses the development path dominated by fossil fuels, represents a high level of greenhouse gas emissions and a nominal 8.5 Wm −2 radioactive forcing level by 2100 [36]. Additionally, soil factors have also been shown to be important factors affecting species distribution [37].…”

Section: Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

Cao

Zhang

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Section: Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

Cao

Zhang

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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“…The duration, severity, and intensity increase with the increasing greenhouse gas emission in the future period. The mean drought duration and severity are longer and severe under the high emission scenario SSP585, which is reported by (Li et al 2020). The frequency of drought occurrences under SSP245 (17.5%) is slightly higher than SSP126 (16.6%) and SSP585 (16.8%) scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 65%

Projected Drought Conditions over Southern Slope of the Central Himalaya Using CMIP6 Models

et al. 2021

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Nepal is located on the southern slope of the Central Himalayas and has experienced frequent droughts in the past. In this study, we used an ensemble of 13 biased corrected models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess the future drought conditions over Nepal under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at annual timescale. The monthly correlation between observed and CMIP6-simulated historical SPEI is 0.23 (p < 0.01), which indicates the CMIP6 model ensemble can simulate the drought characteristics over Nepal. In the future period (2020–2100), the duration and severity of droughts are projected to increase with higher emission scenarios, especially for SSP585. Our results indicate enhanced drought intensity under SSP126, whereas, under SSP245, the drought frequency will be slightly higher. The drought frequency is projected to increase in the early future (2020–2060), decreasing in the late future (2061–2100) under all SSP scenarios. The results further indicate more prolonged and severe droughts in the early future under SSP585 as compared to SSP126 and SSP245. The findings of the present study can help drought mitigation as well as long-term adaptation strategies over Nepal.

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“…Meanwhile, their potential influences on the social and economic development may be amplified (Chen and Sun, 2019). Following the launch of CMIP6 by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), Northwest China will become drier during 2015–2099 under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 (Li et al ., 2020). However, limited studies have been conducted on the drought assessments and its impact over China (taking into consideration the whole territory and its distinct climatic zones) using the up‐to‐date simulation data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future drought in CMIP6 projections and the socioeconomic impacts in China

Chen

Wang

Miao

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Projections of future drought conditions under climate change are an important step in formulating the long‐term climate adaptation strategies. It is therefore valuable to predict the drought conditions in China following the release of the CMIP6 (the phase six of the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project). Thus, based on 20 global climate model simulations from CMIP6, we project China's drought conditions and its socioeconomic impacts using the self‐calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). Four scenarios are considered in this analysis: SSP1‐2.6 (the low‐level development scenario), SSP2‐4.5 (the middle‐level development scenario), SSP3‐7.0 (the medium to high‐level development scenario) and SSP5‐8.5 (the high‐level development scenario). Under SSP1‐2.6, we observed wetting trends over large areas of China except the arid region during 2020–2099; however, under SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, significant drying trends are detected in the humid and temperate semi‐humid region, while in other areas there are significant wetting trends. The projected drought conditions are likely to be severe with more frequent monthly occurrences and higher probability of extreme drying conditions, especially in these humid and temperate semi‐humid regions under SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. Consequently, the population exposure to drought in most climatic regions will increase initially up to 2040s and gradually decrease under all the scenarios except SSP3‐7.0; and the humid region will be a future hotspot where the impact of climate on population exposure to drought will be more significant. The economic exposure to drought will increase over the whole China under all four scenarios, especially in the humid and semi‐humid region. Our results have important implications for future drought projections and provide a scientific evidence for developing climate change adaptation strategies and disaster prevention.

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Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099

Cited by 134 publications

References 37 publications

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

Projected Drought Conditions over Southern Slope of the Central Himalaya Using CMIP6 Models

Future drought in CMIP6 projections and the socioeconomic impacts in China

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