Projected increase in the spatial extent of contiguous US summer heat waves and associated attributes

Lyon, Bradfield; Barnston, Anthony G.; Coffel, Ethan; Horton, Radley M.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4b41

Cited by 68 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Extreme temperature fluctuations in terrestrial and marine systems have occurred with increasing frequency and duration over the past century, and will increase further with continued anthropogenic climate change Lyon et al, 2019;Oliver et al, 2019;Rohini et al, 2019). Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are one such example of temperature fluctuations, and are defined as "discrete prolonged anomalous warm water events" (Hobday et al, 2016) that can result in rapid population declines and reduced ecosystem functioning (Frölicher and Laufkötter, 2018;Oliver et al, 2019;Smale et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surviving Heatwaves: Thermal Experience Predicts Life and Death in a Southern Ocean Diatom

2021

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Extreme environmental fluctuations such as marine heatwaves (MHWs) can have devastating effects on ecosystem health and functioning through rapid population declines and destabilization of trophic interactions. However, recent studies have highlighted that population tolerance to MHWs is variable, with some populations even benefitting from MHWs. A number of factors can explain variation in responses between populations including their genetic variation, previous thermal experience and the cumulative heatwave intensity (°C d) of the heatwave itself. We disentangle the contributions of these factors on population mortality and post-heatwave growth rates by experimentally simulating heatwaves (7.5 or 9.2°C, for up to 9 days) for three genotypes of the Southern Ocean diatom Actinocyclus actinochilus. The effects of simulated heatwaves on mortality and population growth rates varied with genotype, thermal experience and the cumulative intensity of the heatwave itself. Firstly, hotter and longer heatwaves increased mortality and decreased post-heatwave growth rates relative to milder, shorter heatwaves. Secondly, growth above the thermal optimum before heatwaves exacerbated heatwave-associated negative effects, leading to increased mortality during heatwaves and slower growth after heatwaves. Thirdly, hotter and longer heatwaves resulted in more pronounced changes to thermal optima (Topt) immediately following heatwaves. Finally, there is substantial intraspecific variation in post-heatwave growth rates. Our findings shed light on the potential of Southern Ocean diatoms to tolerate MHWs, which will increase both in frequency and in intensity under future climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surviving Heatwaves: Thermal Experience Predicts Life and Death in a Southern Ocean Diatom

2021

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“…In future work, it would be interesting to examine the predictability of the weather regimes, particularly C1, in a warming climate. On one hand, under climate change, heat waves are expected to become stronger, longer, and larger, making the more skillful forecasts of the associated circulation patterns such as C1 even more important (Lau and Nath 2014;Rasmijn et al 2018;Lyon et al 2019;Nabizadeh et al 2019;Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis 2020;Kornhuber and Tamarin-Brodsky 2021). On the other hand, recent studies using the same dynamical systems-based analysis have shown that climate change can impact d and θ, thus changing the intrinsic predictability of weather regimes (Faranda et al 2019a;Scher and Messori 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flow-dependent and dynamical systems analyses of predictability of the Pacific-North American summertime circulation

Nabizadeh¹,

Lubis²,

Hassanzadeh³

2021

Preprint

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Forecast skills of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and intrinsic predictability can be flow-dependent, e.g., different amongweather regimes. Here, we have examined the predictability of distinct Pacific-North American weather regimes in June-September. Fourweather regimes are identified using a self-organizing map analysis of daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, and are shown to havedistinct and coherent links to near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies over the North American continent. The 4 to 14-dayforecast skills of these 4 regimes are quantified for the ECMWF and the NCEP models (from the TIGGE project) and the Global EnsembleForecast System (GEFS). Based on anomaly correlation coefficient, persistence, and transition frequency, the highest forecast skills areconsistently found for regime 3 (Arctic high). In general, the least skillful forecasts are for regime 1 (Pacific trough). The instantaneous localdimension and persistence of each regime are computed using a dynamical systems-based analysis. The local dimension and persistenceare indicators of intrinsic predictability. This analysis robustly shows that regime 3 has the highest intrinsic predictability. The analysisalso suggests that overall, regime 1 has the lowest intrinsic predictability. These findings are consistent with the high (low) forecast skillsof NWP models for regime 3 (regime 1). Weather regime 1 is associated with above-normal temperature and precipitation anomalies overwestern North America and around the Gulf of Mexico region, indicating potentially important implications for the poor predictability ofthis regime. The dynamical systems analysis suggests that better estimates of initial conditions might improve the forecasts of this regime.

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“…Studies investigating the combined spatial and temporal evolution of heat events seem to be limited to the effects of different future climates on heatwave size and duration for differing heatwave definitions (Lyon et al ., 2019; Vogel et al ., 2020). This contrasts with other aspects of atmospheric research, where schemes tracking the spatial and temporal development of weather phenomena are widely utilized—for example, storm tracking for convective storms (Dixon and Wiener, 1993; Johnson et al ., 1998; Lakshmanan and Smith, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme heat events from an object viewpoint with application to south‐east Australia

King

Reeder

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Surface high temperature extremes have a large impact on society and environment, and their relationship to the large‐scale circulation has been explored in detail. However, most of these studies have investigated these relationships in a single location or region, and focused on events that persist at this location sufficiently long to be considered heatwave‐like events. Moreover, few studies have explored the full lifecycle of extreme temperature events. The present study introduces a simple object that can be used to follow areas of extreme temperature that moves through time, and presents a basic global climatology of these objects, showing that shorter high temperature objects are more frequently found in the tropics and longer objects are more likely along the mid‐latitude jet regions. Heatwave‐length (three or more days) high temperature events in the south‐eastern part of Australia are also explored using this object approach, showing that while many shorter length objects in the area form and decay within the region, longer objects tend to first appear along the coast west of much of the south‐east Australian region and decay mostly over the ocean to the south‐east of the region. The area affected by the objects is closely associated to the propagation of circulation anomalies, moving from west to east with surface temperature extremes slightly to the west of upper‐level anticyclonic anomalies and in between a surface high to the east and a trough/low/cold front to the west. The large‐scale circulation anomalies are similar in structure but differ in magnitude for different lengths of objects that affect south‐east Australia, although longer‐lived objects have upper‐level anticyclonic anomalies located further north than the shorter heatwave‐length objects. Objects that affect both far western and south‐eastern Australia closely resemble the longer south‐eastern Australian heatwave‐length objects.

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Projected increase in the spatial extent of contiguous US summer heat waves and associated attributes

Cited by 68 publications

References 49 publications

Surviving Heatwaves: Thermal Experience Predicts Life and Death in a Southern Ocean Diatom

Surviving Heatwaves: Thermal Experience Predicts Life and Death in a Southern Ocean Diatom

Flow-dependent and dynamical systems analyses of predictability of the Pacific-North American summertime circulation

Extreme heat events from an object viewpoint with application to south‐east Australia

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