Projected shift of Köppen–Geiger zones in the central Europe: A first insight into the implications for ecosystems and the society

Abstract

We examined a future change of Köppen–Geiger climate classification zones in central Europe in the 21st century using the high‐resolution (10 km) bias‐corrected simulations of two regional climate models following the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Temperate oceanic climate (Cfb) will remain the dominant climate type in central Europe but it will extent into higher altitudes and replace boreal or colder climate types that will practically vanish by the end of the 21st century. There is a risk of large‐scale expansion of humid subtropical (Cfa) climate in lower altitudes where 20–50% of population lives nowadays. In the end of the century the majority of arable land and permanent crops areas will be in the Cfa zone. A growing occurrence of Cfa‐like or Mediterranean climate‐like (Csa) years will reach up to 50% at some locations where 1.4 million people live today. Almost all agriculturally important areas and two thirds of the current population will be exposed to the occurrence of Cfa‐ and Csa‐like years at least once in 10 years which may result into a lower production of rain‐fed crops as it was the case of of Cfa‐ and Csa‐like years of 2000, 2012 and 2015.

Reflections of global warming in trends of temperature characteristics in the Czech Republic, 1961–2019

“…In similar fashion, papers that focus on temperatures are the most frequent in the Czech Republic (further CR), covering a broad spectrum of topics: long-term fluctuations and forcings (Brázdil et al, 2009;Mikšovský et al, 2014;Wang et al, 2019), changes in daily temperature range (Brázdil et al, 1995;1996;, temperature extremes and heat-waves (Kyselý, 2010;Holtanová et al, 2015;Urban et al, 2017;Valeriánová et al, 2017), model projections (Štěpánek et al, 2016;Skalák et al, 2018) and so forth.…”

The Impacts of Global Warming on Climate Zone Changes Over Asia Based on CMIP6 Projections

“…Global temperature has increased as a result of enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) from natural and anthropogenic sources. The gradual long‐term global warming trend since the preindustrial (PI) period drives the alteration of Earth's energy cycle, and consequently, it drives the alteration of the climate system with associated impacts (Skalák et al., 2018). Alterations have not only affected extreme climates but also regional climatological features, such as long‐term mean temperature and precipitation (IPCC, 2013; 2018).…”

Longer Growing Seasons Cause Hydrological Regime Shifts in Central European Forests

“…The most likely future (2071-2100) Köppen-Geiger climate classification for the region is "Cfa", humid, subtropical but there is a low degree of certainty (14/100) with this projection [53]. The future climate for the catchment may remain the same as present conditions shift to "Cfa" or to "Csa", a Mediterranean-type climate [74]. It should be noted that Mediterranean climates have reduced precipitation during summer; this was not observed in the E-OBS dataset, which is based on instrumental measurements.…”