Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Gamelin, B.; Feinstein, Jeremy; Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Yan, Eugene; Kotamarthi, V. R.

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-12516-7

Cited by 40 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 58 publications

(69 reference statements)

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“…This finding is also supported by Beerling’s [ 142 ] predictions on the relationship between the southern boundary of I. glandulifera and summer droughts and the limited distribution of I. glandulifera in the south of Europe [ 56 , 73 , 87 ]. Consequently, the limited southward expansion of the projected invasive range and its geographical pattern is in accordance with the predicted increase in the drought severity and frequency with climate change for the USA and Canada [ 154 , 155 , 156 , 157 ].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

A Modeling Framework to Frame a Biological Invasion: Impatiens glandulifera in North America

Kanmaz

Şenel

Dalfes

2023

Plants

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Biological invasions are a major component of global environmental change with severe ecological and economic consequences. Since eradicating biological invaders is costly and even futile in many cases, predicting the areas under risk to take preventive measures is crucial. Impatiens glandulifera is a very aggressive and prolific invasive species and has been expanding its invasive range all across the Northern hemisphere, primarily in Europe. Although it is currently spread in the east and west of North America (in Canada and USA), studies on its fate under climate change are quite limited compared to the vast literature in Europe. Hybrid models, which integrate multiple modeling approaches, are promising tools for making projections to identify the areas under invasion risk. We developed a hybrid and spatially explicit framework by utilizing MaxEnt, one of the most preferred species distribution modeling (SDM) methods, and we developed an agent-based model (ABM) with the statistical language R. We projected the I. glandulifera invasion in North America, for the 2020–2050 period, under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Our results showed a predominant northward progression of the invasive range alongside an aggressive expansion in both currently invaded areas and interior regions. Our projections will provide valuable insights for risk assessment before the potentially irreversible outcomes emerge, considering the severity of the current state of the invasion in Europe.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

A Modeling Framework to Frame a Biological Invasion: Impatiens glandulifera in North America

Kanmaz

Şenel

Dalfes

2023

Plants

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“…Increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is common during drought (Gamelin et al, 2022), reduces vegetation productivity (Grossiord et al, 2020;Yuan et al, 2019), and is likely to be greatest during the warmest months . Recent work in Great Plains grasslands also suggests that the proportion of cool-season precipitation increases during drought (Knapp et al, 2020).…”

Section: F I G U R Ementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The combined effects of high vegetation water use in spring and high atmospheric water demand in summer (Lian et al, 2020; Wolf et al, 2016) may exacerbate water limitation. Increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is common during drought (Gamelin et al, 2022), reduces vegetation productivity (Grossiord et al, 2020; Yuan et al, 2019), and is likely to be greatest during the warmest months (Hajek & Knapp, 2022). Recent work in Great Plains grasslands also suggests that the proportion of cool‐season precipitation increases during drought (Knapp et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Timing and magnitude of drought impacts on carbon uptake across a grassland biome

Felton

Goldsmith

2023

Global Change Biology

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Although drought is known to negatively impact grassland functioning, the timing and magnitude of these impacts within a growing season remain unresolved. Previous small‐scale assessments indicate grasslands may only respond to drought during narrow periods within a year; however, large‐scale assessments are now needed to uncover the general patterns and determinants of this timing. We combined remote sensing datasets of gross primary productivity and weather to assess the timing and magnitude of grassland responses to drought at 5 km2 temporal resolution across two expansive ecoregions of the western US Great Plains biome: the C4‐dominated shortgrass steppe and the C3‐dominated northern mixed prairies. Across over 700,000 pixel‐year combinations covering more than 600,000 km2, we studied how the driest years between 2003–2020 altered the daily and bi‐weekly dynamics of grassland carbon (C) uptake. Reductions to C uptake intensified into the early summer during drought and peaked in mid‐ and late June in both ecoregions. Stimulation of spring C uptake during drought was small and insufficient to compensate for losses during summer. Thus, total grassland C uptake was consistently reduced by drought across both ecoregions; however, reductions were twice as large across the more southern and warmer shortgrass steppe. Across the biome, increased summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was strongly linked to peak reductions in vegetation greenness during drought. Rising VPD will likely exacerbate reductions in C uptake during drought across the western US Great Plains, with these reductions greatest during the warmest months and in the warmest locations. High spatiotemporal resolution analyses of grassland response to drought over large areas provide both generalizable insights and new opportunities for basic and applied ecosystem science in these water‐limited ecoregions amid climate change.

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“…In general, the more frequent and enlarged wildfires are attributed to both increasing drought severity (Dennison et al, 2014;Gamelin et al, 2022) and fire suppression activity that leads to fuel build-up (Brotons et al, 2013).…”

Section: The Seasonality and Long-term Trends Of Historical Wildfiresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of Fire Danger Indices and Their Utility in Predicting Future Wildfire Danger Over the Conterminous United States

Yu,

Feng,

Wang

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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Predicting current and future wildfire frequency and size is central to wildfire control and management. Multiple fire danger indices (FDIs) that incorporate weather and fuel conditions have been developed and utilized to support wildfire predictions and risk assessment. However, the scale‐dependent performance of individual FDIs remains poorly understood, which leads to large uncertainty in the estimated fire sizes under climate change. Here, we calculate four commonly used FDIs over the conterminous United States using high‐resolution (4 km) climate and fuel data sets for the 1984–2019 period. The relationships of these four FDIs to the observed wildfire sizes show that higher values of FDIs correlate to larger total fire sizes; this correlation is more robust at larger spatial scales. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the daily minimum relative humidity and precipitation are the most important drivers of the annual mean fire danger. In the instances of extreme fire danger, wind speed becomes a critical factor and should be considered in the calculation of the FDI. To assess the impact of climate change on future fire size, we calculate the present‐day and end‐of‐century FDIs using the 12 km regional climate model simulations. The four FDIs generally predict consistent changes in future fire potential, suggesting an overall higher fire potential in conjunction with a prolonged wildfire season in future climate. Regionally, the four FDIs also reveal similar seasonal patterns as the enhancement arises mostly in spring and summer over the southwest US while in summer and fall over the northern and eastern US.

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Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Cited by 40 publications

References 58 publications

A Modeling Framework to Frame a Biological Invasion: Impatiens glandulifera in North America

A Modeling Framework to Frame a Biological Invasion: Impatiens glandulifera in North America

Timing and magnitude of drought impacts on carbon uptake across a grassland biome

Performance of Fire Danger Indices and Their Utility in Predicting Future Wildfire Danger Over the Conterminous United States

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