Projecting changes in explosive cyclones and high waves around Japan using a mega-ensemble projection

Ninomiya, Junichi; Taka, Yuya; Mori, Nobuhito

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109634

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…From above, the contribution of N and U to DWs needs to be analyzed more closely in future work. Regardless of the wind direction, wind speeds were slightly increased over sea areas, potentially due to the poleward shift, and by the intensification of BCs over Hokkaido, as reported by Ninomiya et al (2021).…”

Section: Extreme Winds and Future Changessupporting

confidence: 51%

Assessment of extreme local topographic winds and their future changes from a massive high-resolution ensemble climate dataset

Kitano,

Ohba,

Soda

et al. 2023

Hydrological Research Letters

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The estimation of extreme wind speeds, their directional variation, and potential future changes is essential for windresistant design and is possible using climate models. Accurate evaluations of local topographic winds such as downslope windstorms and gap winds require highresolution calculation and many ensemble years. However, few climate databases satisfy both requirements and none have been validated for extreme wind speeds.We assessed directional extreme wind speeds using a massive high-resolution ensemble climate dataset (d4PDF-5km-DS) for Hokkaido Island, Japan. Despite some issues due to limited reproducibility of spring extratropical cyclones, downslope windstorms caused by large mountains are reproduced well, indicating decreasing wind speed under predicted future climate. The findings suggest future climatic conditions may influence extreme topographic wind speeds.

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Section: Extreme Winds and Future Changessupporting

confidence: 51%

Assessment of extreme local topographic winds and their future changes from a massive high-resolution ensemble climate dataset

Kitano,

Ohba,

Soda

et al. 2023

Hydrological Research Letters

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“…Therefore, the time dependence involves at least two aspects: 1) sea-level rise and 2) seismic sequences. Sea-level rise projections are built on historical data (Church and White, 2011) and simulation-based (Roberts et al, 2020;Ninomiya et al, 2021) as well as storm surges (Mori et al, 2019(Mori et al, , 2021, making their size and intensity stronger and making their track and forward velocity even more unpredictable (Knutson et al, 2020). Sea level rise and storm surges can modify the bathymetry and accelerate coastal erosion.…”

Section: Dynamic Risks For Coastal Communitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic risk framework for cascading compounding climate-geological hazards: A perspective on coastal communities in subduction zones

Risi

Muhammad²,

Luca³

et al. 2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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Integrated disaster resilience approaches are paramount for enhancing risk management of coastal communities in subduction zones under climate-geological risks. Cascading compounding climate-geological risks are dynamic, interact, and evolve with time. Also, classical convolution of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure does not allow easy implementation of causalities and dependencies that are critical in modelling impact chains due to cascading compounding multi-hazards. A new dynamic multi-hazard catastrophe modelling framework is proposed to fill important research gaps in the temporal evolution of climate-geological risks. Systemic modelling is a key tool where time-dependent and interacting risks are explicitly modelled, and multiple risk metrics can be computed. Furthermore, a possible new entropy-based approach for harmonising risk metrics is presented. Such a harmonisation can facilitate the decision-making process for disaster risk reduction. Finally, a way forward for future implementation of the proposed methodologies is discussed with a focus on the need for the development of new numerical and analytical tools.

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“…Jang et al [13] concluded that explosive cyclones accompanied by firm and persistent winds are the drivers of swelllike waves. These explosive ETCs have been also detected over the EJS and the northwest Pacific near the Kuroshio Current [14,15]. Heo et al [16] examined the mechanisms and conditions conducive to explosive cyclones and abnormal storm waves in the EJS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of Swell-like Waves in the East Coast of Korea Using Atmospheric and Wave Hindcast Data

et al. 2022

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The long-term trend of swell-like waves invading the east coast of Korea was identified by using observations and hindcast data from 1979 to 2016. We defined a swell-like wave as a wave with a height of 2 m and a peak period of 10 s on the basis of a literature review of human casualties and property damage in the region. In total, 179 swell-like wave cases were detected from 1979 to 2016, with 132 cases caused by extratropical cyclones (ETCs). The track density analysis indicated that the ETCs were mainly generated on the east coast of China, over the East/Japan Sea, and over the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension region and then moved northeast. This reflects the prevailing wind direction, which was the most significant factor in generating the swell-like waves. The number of swell-like waves has been significantly increasing since the 2000s. This increasing trend of swell-like waves is linked with the synoptic eddy activity with a correlation of 0.53. They were associated with the reversed meridional gradient of surface air temperature and the consequent negative vertical wind shear anomaly near 40° N.

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Projecting changes in explosive cyclones and high waves around Japan using a mega-ensemble projection

Cited by 8 publications

References 19 publications

Assessment of extreme local topographic winds and their future changes from a massive high-resolution ensemble climate dataset

Assessment of extreme local topographic winds and their future changes from a massive high-resolution ensemble climate dataset

Dynamic risk framework for cascading compounding climate-geological hazards: A perspective on coastal communities in subduction zones

Characteristics of Swell-like Waves in the East Coast of Korea Using Atmospheric and Wave Hindcast Data

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