Projection of fire potential to future climate scenarios in the Alpine area: some methodological considerations

Cane, D.; Wastl, Clemens; Barbarino, S.; Renier, L.; Schunk, Christian; Menzel, Annette

doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0775-7

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…This requires a careful land management with particular care in managing fire-related activities, since fires may induce relevant costs for the environment, in terms of wild and human life, as well as diminishing economic rewards. In recent years, the Southern Alpine regions experienced an increase in the number and intensity of forest fire events (Gossow et al., 2007; Zumbrunnen et al., 2009), possibly as a consequence of climate change, as suggested by projections, which identify the Alps as an area particularly sensitive to the impacts of global warming (Cane et al., 2012a, 2013). For this reason, a large European project, ALPFIRS (http://www.alpffirs.eu/) involving 15 partners from six Alpine countries has recently been founded aiming at developing ‘a multi-referential innovative service that strongly supports forest fire management, above all in prevention activities and in the mitigation of the impact due to flaming front on the Alpine forests’.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use and performance of the Forest Fire Weather Index to model the risk of wildfire occurrence in the Alpine region

Beccari

Borgoni

Cazzuli

et al. 2015

Environ Plann B Plann Des

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Assessing a territory’s fire proneness is fundamental when planning and undertaking effective forest protection and land management. Accurate methods to estimate the risk of fire ignition in natural environments have been proposed over the last decades and digital mapping has been used to identify critical areas. The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index is a well-known fire danger rating index created and improved during the last 45 years by the Canadian Forest Service. The goal of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we evaluated whether the Forest Fire Weather Index is an adequate instrument to predict fire ignition in Alpine and sub-Alpine areas using quite a large dataset of meteorological and forest fire data collected in the Lombardy region (Northern Italy) between 2003 and 2011. By means of a spatial binary regression model, we demonstrated that Forest Fire Weather Index has a significant impact on the probability of fire ignition. Since this approach allows us to account for other characteristics of the territory in order to provide a more accurate estimate of the spatial wildfire dynamics at a moderately large scale, the second goal of the paper aims at creating a model to assess fire risk occurrence using the Forest Fire Weather Index and land use information. It has been found that ignition can easily occur in large forested areas whereas denser urban areas are less exposed to fire since they usually have no fuels to ignite. Nevertheless, since human activity has a direct impact on fire ignition human presence, it fosters ignition in forested areas. Finally, the model, including these spatial dimensions, has been employed to derive a probability map of fire occurrences at 1.5 km resolution, which is a fundamental instrument to develop optimal prevention and risk management policy plans for the decision maker.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use and performance of the Forest Fire Weather Index to model the risk of wildfire occurrence in the Alpine region

Beccari

Borgoni

Cazzuli

et al. 2015

Environ Plann B Plann Des

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“…These factors are continuously changing due to natural climate variability and human-caused climate change (Stocker et al 2013) which may contribute to the high inter-annual variability and increasing trends observed in the last decades (Pereira et al 2005;Pereira et al 2011) and legitimizes the ambition to try to estimate future fire activity. Many of the most recent studies on the impacts of climate change on some aspect of the fire regime and wildfires has focus on North (Johnstone et al 2010;Wotton et al 2010;Westerling et al 2011;Rocca et al 2014) and South America (Silvestrini et al 2011), Australia (Pitman et al 2007;Murphy and Timbal 2008;Clarke et al 2011) Lynch et al, 2007, in boreal forests of North America and Eurasia (Kilpeläinen et al 2010;Liu et al 2012;De Groot et al 2013), in Europe (Moriondo et al 2006;Batllori et al 2013;Cane et al 2013;Bedia et al 2014;Karali et al 2014) and even at global scale (Moritz et al 2012). However, and despite the magnitude of the problem in Portugal, a very short list of studies have dealt with the impact of climate change on wildfire risk in Portugal (Durão and Corte-Real 2006;Carvalho et al 2008;Carvalho et al 2010;Pereira et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on the fire regime in Portugal

DaCamara¹,

Pereira²,

Calheiros³

et al. 2014

Advances in Forest Fire Research

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Mapping burn severity in the western Italian Alps through phenologically coherent reflectance composites derived from Sentinel-2 imagery

Morresi

Marzano

Lingua

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing of Environment

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Projection of fire potential to future climate scenarios in the Alpine area: some methodological considerations

Cited by 4 publications

References 27 publications

Use and performance of the Forest Fire Weather Index to model the risk of wildfire occurrence in the Alpine region

Use and performance of the Forest Fire Weather Index to model the risk of wildfire occurrence in the Alpine region

Impacts of climate change on the fire regime in Portugal

Mapping burn severity in the western Italian Alps through phenologically coherent reflectance composites derived from Sentinel-2 imagery

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