Projection of Flight Cancellations and Economic Losses Caused by Future Climate Change

Abstract

The aviation industry plays an important role in daily life because of the increase of demand attributable to the development of air logistics as well as domestic and foreign tourism. However, the higher frequency of extreme weather caused by climate change has a large adverse effect on the operation of aircraft. As this effect is expected to increase, measures to reduce flight cancellation are needed. Therefore, in this study, the number of future flight cancellations and related economic losses were calculated for 1 3 domestic airports and six domestic airlines. To calculate the future climate of the airports, we used the recently released Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) climate change scenario. Then, we applied machine learning and the nearest neighbor with genetic algorithm method for spatial and temporal downscaling, respectively. The calculated results were applied to aircraft cancellation criteria and a damage estimation formula. Depending on the scenario, rainfall intensity increased by 2.02 to 3.54 times and wind speed increased by 1.16 to 1.24 times during 2100 to 2081. Economic losses from aircraft cancellations attributable to future climate increased by up to approximately 8.29 times. The results of this study highlight the necessity of preparing for and responding to climate change within the airline industry.

Analysis of Weather Factors on Aircraft Cancellation using a Multilayer Complex Network

“…Alexander and Onyejiri [ 9 ] investigated the effect of adverse weather on air transport at Port Harcourt international airport, showing that it affects aircraft operation, passenger finances, and health. Lee et al [ 10 ] projected the number of flight cancellations and corresponding economic losses based on climate change scenarios. These studies show that aircraft cancellations are a phenomenon caused by weather factors affecting aircraft operations, and weather and aircraft should be considered concurrently in research.…”