Projection of Hot and Cold Extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6

Salehie, Obaidullah; Ismail, Tarmizi; Hamed, Mohammed Magdy; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Muhammad, Mohd Khairul Idlan

doi:10.1007/s00477-022-02201-6

Cited by 27 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…An increase in T min more than T max has been stated in different areas of the world, including in the study area (Feng et al 2018;Nashwan et al 2019;Salehie et al 2022). The present study also showed a higher rise in MeanT min than MeanT max in various parts of the study area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Exposed Population to Hot and Cold Extremes in MENA for Paris Climate Agreement Temperature Goals

Hamed

Ali

Nashwan

et al. 2023

Preprint

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This study aims to project extreme temperatures and the population exposed to them in the MENA region for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-1.9 and 1-2.6), representative Paris climate agreement goals of 1.5 and 2.0°C temperature rise limits, respectively, for two future periods, near (2020-2059) and far (2060-2099). The daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature of Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to estimate twelve temperature indices, while the population distribution for the historical and future periods was used to estimate the changes in the population exposed to temperature extremes. The results revealed an increase in days with Tmax>45°C (D45Tmax) by 30 and the population exposure to D45Tmax by 20 million person-day by 2099 for SSP1-2.6. In contrast, there will be a decrease in the days with Tmin<0°C (D0Tmin) by 11, which would cause a decrease in the population exposed to it by 36 and 480 million person-days in the far future for both scenarios. The change in temperature extremes would mostly affect the populations in Mauritania, Algeria, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Qatar. For a temperature rise of 2.0 °C, the percentage of the population exposed to the hot extreme will increase between 0.5 and 5.2% by 2059 and between 1.8 and 18.1% by 2099, indicating a significant increase in the population exposed to the hot extreme for only 0.5 °C rising temperature. However, the overall impact will be more in reducing the cold extremes than increasing the hot extreme.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Exposed Population to Hot and Cold Extremes in MENA for Paris Climate Agreement Temperature Goals

Hamed

Ali

Nashwan

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Modelling historical and potential future changes in weather extremes requires global climate models (GCMs) (Ali et al, 2019; Salehie, Ismail et al, 2022). It is crucial to evaluate the ability of GCMs so that their simulations may be trusted.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan

Ali,

Hamed,

Muhammad

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The study used a hybrid approach to evaluate the performance of 20 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in reproducing 20 extreme temperature and precipitation indices over Pakistan. This study first analysed the future simulations of extremes and discarded the GCMs whose projections fell outside the 95% confidence interval. The remaining GCMs' performance was evaluated using the Kling Gupta Efficiency‐based criteria. The changes in extreme climatic events in Pakistan were projected using the multi‐model ensemble (MME) median of the selected GCMs for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) in two future periods, 2020–2059 and 2060–2099. Four GCMs' showed inconsistency in projecting future climatic extremes and were discarded initially. The past performance of the remaining GCMs revealed EC‐Earth3‐Veg‐LR, GFDL‐ESM4, MRI‐ESM2‐0 and NOR‐ESM2‐MM to be effective in reproducing extreme indices for the historical period. The MME median of the selected GCMs showed a gradual increase in most of the temperature and precipitation extreme indices in the future periods for all SSPs across the country. Specifically, it showed a higher increase in daily maximum temperature (TXx) by 4.5–5°C, daily minimum temperature (TNn) by more than 4.5°C, consecutive days with a temperature higher than the 95th percentile (WSDI) by >160 days, one‐day maximum rainfall by 9–15 mm and days with precipitation above the 95th percentile by >50 mm in northern high‐elevated areas during 2060–2099 for SSP585. Similarly, a higher increase in TXx by 4.5–5°C, TNn by >4.5°C, WSDI by 140 days and tropical nights by 40–60 days was also found in the western arid region during 2060–2099 for SSP585. The study highlights that northern high‐elevated and western arid regions are at a higher risk of extreme temperatures and precipitation due to climate change.

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“…Значительное потепление глобального климата, вызванное выбросами парниковых газов, имеет потенциально катастрофические последствия для окружающей среды в целом. Это привело к временным и пространственным изменениям климатических переменных в глобальном масштабе [1][2][3][4][5]. Адаптация к этим изменениям имеет важное значение, и необходимо количественно оценить будущие риски и уязвимость.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Assessment of future Central African air temperatures under the CMIP5 and CMIP6 project scenarios

Tokpa¹,

Лобанов²,

Korotkova³

2023

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Based on the results of the historical experiment of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projects, the effectiveness of the scenario estimates (RCP/SSP1 2.6, RCP/SSP2 4.5 and RCP/SSP5 8.5) of the future air temperature for Central Africa for the IPSL and BCC global climate models is evaluated and the simulation results of these projects are compared with each other and with the observations of meteorological stations in the region, both for the historical experimental period and with the observations of recent years for the implementation of future climate projections. Based on historical experiment and future evaluations over the past 16 years, it has been determined that the CMIP6 project model versions are no more effective than the CMIP5 results when compared with observational data. Due to the fact that the differences between observational and modeling data are systematic, the results of scenario estimates were adjusted according to the principle of similarity of temperature growth rates for the historical observation period and the future scenario period untilthe end ofthe 21stcentury,which is divided into 3 intervalsfor estimating average values: 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Future air temperatures in Central Africawere estimated both forthe average values fortheterritory and forthetemperatures of individualweatherstations based on the adjusted scenario values, which differed in CMIP5 and CMIP6 by no more than 0.1°С. It was found that the average temperature increase over the territory in all months by the end of the 21st century reaches 2.0–2.3°C, and according to estimates at individual weather stations, spatial distributions of future temperatures were obtained, which show the greatest increase in the north of the region near the Sahel.

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Projection of Hot and Cold Extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6

Cited by 27 publications

References 77 publications

Exposed Population to Hot and Cold Extremes in MENA for Paris Climate Agreement Temperature Goals

Exposed Population to Hot and Cold Extremes in MENA for Paris Climate Agreement Temperature Goals

A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan

Assessment of future Central African air temperatures under the CMIP5 and CMIP6 project scenarios

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