Projection of the Precipitation Extremes in Thailand Under Climate Change Scenario RCP8.5

Abstract

This study explores the predicted extreme precipitation during 2020–2029 in Thailand, using the output of the nested regional climate model (NRCM) with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. The research used five different extreme precipitation indices, i.e., annual precipitation total (PRCPTOT), the annual number of rainy days (RD), simple daily intensity index (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDDs), and consecutive wet days (CWD). The PRCTOT was generally located in eastern Thailand, with significant declining trends, while the increasing trend was found in northern Thailand. The quantity of the PRCPTOT varies marginally from 100 to 200 mm per decade. The annual RD was influenced mostly by the negative trends in Thailand. A remarkable trend is a rising of annual SDII, with major statistical increases ranging from 5 to 20%. A widespread decline in CWD was found in most regions. The statistically significant pattern of CWD has been geographically concentrated in the northern, southern, and eastern regions of Thailand. Southern Thailand continues to decline by −10 to −30%. A drastic decline has been observed in the south of Thailand. Projected interannual precipitation variability shows that December–January–February (DJF) variability will be greater than either annual or June–July–August (JJA) variability in most years, with the exception of 2022, 2025, and 2026, in which the JJA variability will be greater than both the annual variability and the DJF variability.

Evaluation of extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 regional climate model results andHighResMIPglobal climate models

“…However, according to a crop water need analysis, the SEA area will remain water-rich for agricultural purposes and the region will remain suitable for agriculture (Amnuaylojaroen and Chanvichit, 2019). Furthermore, Amnuaylojaroen (2021) found that the increase in the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII) will be followed by a decline in the number of annual consecutive dry days (CWD) over Thailand for the period from 2020 to 2029 compared to the period from 1990 to 1999.…”

The Future Extreme Temperature under RCP8.5 Reduces the Yields of Major Crops in Northern Peninsular of Southeast Asia

“…Increasing the extreme temperature in northern Thailand likely affects agriculture. As discussed in references [ 27 , 66 ], the north of Thailand may experience severe dry conditions that would likely lead to strong drought events, and it is essentially necessary to plan for irrigation. These favorable conditions tend to affect crop production, especially maize.…”

The Association Between COVID-19, Air Pollution, and Climate Change

“…When compared to air pollution, the link between COVID-19 and climate change is extremely ambiguous. Since COVID-19 events were detected in 2019, there was no clear evidence of climate change's effect on COVID-19, which is typically a long-term event (32). There was a recent review about climate change and the COVID-19 epidemic in Rodó et al (33).…”