Representing the rainy season of the maritime continent is a challenge for global and regional climate models. Here, we compare regional climate models (RCMs) based on the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) model generation with high‐resolution global climate models with a comparable spatial resolution from the HighResMIP experiment. The onset and the total precipitation of the rainy season for both model experiments are compared against observational datasets for Southeast Asia. A realistic representation of the monsoon rainfall is essential for agriculture in Southeast Asia as a delayed onset jeopardizes the possibility of having three annual crops. In general, the coupled historical runs (Hist‐1950) and the historical force atmosphere run (HighresSST) of the high‐resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) suite were consistently closer to the observations than the RCM of CMIP5 used in this study. We find that for the whole of Southeast Asia, the HighResMIP models simulate the onset date and the total precipitation of the rainy season over the region closer to the observations than the other model sets used in this study. High‐resolution models in the HighresSST experiment showed a similar performance to their low‐resolution equivalents in simulating the monsoon characteristics. The HighresSST experiment simulated the anomaly of the onset date and the total precipitation for different El Niño‐southern oscillation conditions best, although the magnitude of the onset date anomaly was underestimated.

In October 2020, Central Vietnam was struck by heavy rain resulting from a sequence of 5 tropical depressions and typhoons. The immense amount of water led to extensive flooding and landslides that killed more than 200 people, injured more than 500 people, and caused direct damages valued at approximately 1.2 billion USD. Here, we quantify how the intensity of the precipitation leading to such exceptional impacts is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. First, we define the event as the regional maximum of annual maximum 15-day average rainfall (Rx15day). We then analyse the trend in Rx15day over Central Vietnam from the observations and simulations in the PRIMAVERA and CORDEX-CORE ensembles, which pass our evaluation tests, by applying the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution in which location and scale parameters exponentially covary with increasing global temperatures. Combining these observations and model results, we find that the 2020 event, occurring about once every 80 years (at least 17 years), has not changed in either probability of occurrence (a factor 1.0, ranging from 0.4 to 2.4) or intensity (0%, ranging from −8 to +8%) in the present climate in comparison with early-industrial climate. This implies that the effect of human-induced climate change contributing to this persistent extreme rainfall event is small compared to natural variability. However, given the scale of damage of this hazard, our results underline that more investment in disaster risk reduction for this type of rainfall-induced flood hazard is of importance, even independent of the effect of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, as both observations and model simulations will be extended with the passage of time, we encourage more climate change impact investigations on the extreme in the future that help adaptation and mitigation plans and raise awareness in the country.

Modelling rainfall extremes and dry periods over the Southeast Asia (SEA) region is challenging due to the characteristics of the region, which consists of the Maritime Continent and a mountainous region; it also experiences monsoonal conditions, as it is located between the Asian summer monsoon and the Australian summer monsoon. Representing rainfall extremes is important for flood and drought assessments in the region. This paper evaluates extreme rainfall climatic indices from regional climate models from CORDEX Southeast Asia and compares them with the results of high‐resolution global climate models with a comparable spatial resolution from the HighResMIP experiment. Observations indicate a high intensity of rainfall over areas affected by tropical cyclones and long consecutive dry day periods over some areas in Indochina and the southern end of Indonesia. In the model simulations, we find that both coupled and sea surface temperature‐forced HighResMIP model experiments are more similar to the observations than CORDEX model results. However, the models produce a poorer simulation of precipitation intensity‐related indices due to model biases in the rainfall intensity. This bias is higher in CORDEX than in HighResMIP and is evident in both the low‐ and high‐resolution HighResMIP model versions. The comparable performances of HighResSST (atmosphere‐only runs) and Hist‐1950 (coupled ocean–atmosphere runs) demonstrate the accuracy of the ocean model. Comparable performances were also found for the two different resolutions of HighResMIP, suggesting that there is no improvement in the performance of the high‐resolution HighResMIP model compared to the low‐resolution HighResMIP model.