Evaluation of onset, cessation and seasonal precipitation of the Southeast Asia rainy season in <scp>CMIP5</scp> regional climate models and <scp>HighResMIP</scp> global climate models

Hariadi, Mugni Hadi; Schrier, Gerard van der; Steeneveld, G.J.; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Tank, A. M. G. Klein; Roberts, Malcolm; Moine, Marie‐Pierre; Bellucci, Alessio; Senan, Retish; Tourigny, Étienne; Putrasahan, Dian

doi:10.1002/joc.7404

Cited by 12 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The rainfall in these regions is dominated by the monsoon season which starts from the North SEA in May and moves to the South SEA in November (Aldrian and Susanto, 2003;Hamada et al, 2002;Hariadi et al, 2021;Moron et al, 2009). Some areas in the SEA, such as Myanmar (Li et al, 2013), Vietnam (Nguyen-Thi et al, 2012Luu et al, 2021) and Philippine (Corporal-Lodangco and Leslie, 2017) are affected by tropical cyclones, which lead to high extreme precipitation.…”

Section: Description Of the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This model has a spatial resolution (25-50km spatial resolution) comparable to the downscaled output of the regional climate model (RCM) which is based on the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) over SEA (CORDEX-SEA). Previous studies show that the HighResMIP has a better simulation of the monsoon characteristics (Hariadi et al, 2021) and extreme precipitation (Hariadi et al, 2022) than the CORDEX simulations over SEA when compared against the observational SA-OBS ( Van den Besselaar et al, 2017), APHRODITE (Yatagai et al, 2012) and CHIRPS (Funk et al, 2015) observational datasets. We use the coupled historic runs of the HighResMIP for the historical period 1950(Hist-1950 and the future period 2014-2050 (highresfuture).…”

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although climate change's impact on hydroclimatic extremes over SEA has been previously studied especially by the CORDEX-SEA group, the use of the latest version of high-resolution CMIP for this topic is still limited. The previous studies show the CMIP6 high-resolution Modeling Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) (Haarsma et al, 2016) result simulated closer monsoon characteristics (Hariadi et al, 2021)and rainfall indices (Hariadi et al, 2022) to observation than CMIP5 downscaled result from CORDEX-SEA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia

Hariadi

Schrier

Steeneveld

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. This article provides high-resolution information on the projected changes in annual extreme rainfall and high and low streamflow events over Southeast Asia under extreme climate change. The analysis was performed using the bias-corrected result of the High-resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) multi-model experiment for the period 1971–2050. Eleven rainfall indices were calculated along with streamflow simulation using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. The historical period 1981–2010 and the near-future period 2021–2050 were considered for this analysis. Results indicate that over Indochina, Myanmar faces more challenges in the near future. The east coast of Myanmar will experience more extreme high rainfall conditions, while northern Myanmar will have longer dry spells. Over the Indonesian maritime continent, Sumatra and Java will suffer from the increase in dry spell length of up to 40 %, while the increase of extreme high rainfall will occur over Borneo and mountainous areas in Papua. Based on the streamflow analysis, the impact of climate change is more prominent in a low flow event than in a high flow event. The majority of rivers in the central Mekong catchment, Sumatra, the Malaysian peninsula, Borneo, and Java will experience more extreme low flow events. More extreme dry conditions in the near future are also seen from the increasing probability of future low flow occurrences, which reaches 101 % and 122 % on average over Sumatra and Java, respectively. Finally, the changes in extreme high and low streamflow events are more pronounced in rivers with steep hydrographs, while rivers with shallow hydrographs have a higher risk in the probability of low flow change. Our study highlights the importance of catchment properties in aggregating and/or buffering the impact of extreme climate change.

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Section: Description Of the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia

Hariadi

Schrier

Steeneveld

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Recently, state-of-the art climate model outputs from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP 16 ), an experimental protocol aiming to deliver a multi-GCM ensemble at horizontal resolutions finer than the current CMIP6 experiments, have demonstrated an ability to simulate the historical climatology 17,18 and natural variability 19 of regional precipitation over Southeast Asia. HighResMIP also plays an important role in understanding near-future projected changes in regional precipitation and their uncertainties due to changes in climate model resolution 16 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate

et al. 2023

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Borneo Vortices (BVs) are weather systems that are responsible for devastating hydro-climatic extremes and significant losses of life and property in Southeast Asia. The typical resolution of most current climate models is insufficient to resolve these high-impact, synoptic-scale weather systems. Here, an ensemble of high-resolution models projects that future BVs may become less frequent and more stationary, driven by the weakening of the Northeast monsoon flow and associated cold surges across North Borneo. However, substantial increases in both the intensity and the total amount of precipitation from BVs are projected. Such changes are driven by the more humid and convectively unstable lower troposphere. As a result, the contribution of BVs to the accumulation of both total precipitation and extreme precipitation is projected to increase considerably in the vicinity of the southern South China Sea, making individual BVs more threatening to the adjacent coastal regions.

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“…Recently, state-of-the art climate model outputs from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP 12 ), an experimental protocol aiming to deliver a multi-GCM ensemble at horizontal resolutions ner than the current CMIP6 experiments, have demonstrated an ability to simulate the historical climatology 13,14 and natural variability 15 of regional precipitation over Southeast Asia.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Greater extreme precipitation from Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate

Liang

Catto

Hawcroft

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Borneo Vortices (BVs) are weather systems that are responsible for devastating hydrological extreme events and significant losses of life and property in Southeast Asia. The typical resolution of most current climate models is insufficient to resolve these high-impact, synoptic-scale weather systems. Here, an ensemble of high-resolution models projects that future BVs may become less frequent and more stationary, driven by the northward shift of the winter monsoon steering flow and associated cold surges across the South China Sea. However, substantial increases in both the intensity and the total amount of precipitation from BVs are projected. Such changes are driven by the more humid and convectively unstable lower troposphere. As a result, the contribution of BVs to the accumulation of both total precipitation and extreme precipitation is projected to increase considerably in the vicinity of the southern South China Sea, making individual BVs more threatening to the adjacent coastal regions.

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Evaluation of onset, cessation and seasonal precipitation of the Southeast Asia rainy season in CMIP5 regional climate models and HighResMIP global climate models

Cited by 12 publications

References 48 publications

A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia

A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia

Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate

Greater extreme precipitation from Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate

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