Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

Ho, Joon Ting; Thompson, J. R.; Brierley, Chris

doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1057513

Cited by 38 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 72 publications

(83 reference statements)

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“…Further investigation of GCM-related uncertainty on meteorological conditions and, using the hydrological model, river flow and flood extent within the Upper Niger using the CMIP5 results would be a valuable extension of the current study. Such an assessment could be undertaken using the methodology developed by Ho et al (2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The area draining to each gauging station was established using the USGS GTOPO30 digital elevation model (30-arc second or approximately 1 km resolution) and the ArcGIS 10 (Esri) "Hydrology" geoprocessing tools. In a similar approach to that adopted by Ho et al (2015), each sub-catchment model comprised three reservoirs representing the soil, groundwater and channel (i.e. surface water) stores (SS, GWS and CS, respectively) for which the water balance was evaluated for each time step (t; i.e.…”

Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model was implemented using the STELLA systems modelling software (Version 10, isee systems) which provides a high level visual-oriented software and simulation language and has been employed in a number of catchment and wetland hydrological modelling studies (e.g. Zhang and Mitsch 2005, Voinov et al 2007, Ho et al 2015.…”

Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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GCM-related uncertainty for river flows and inundation under climate change: the Inner Niger Delta

Thompson

Crawley

Kingston

2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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A semi-distributed hydrological model of the Niger River above and including the Inner Delta is developed. GCM-related uncertainty in climate change impacts are investigated using seven GCMs for a 2°C increase in global mean temperature, the hypothesised threshold of "dangerous" climate change. Declines in precipitation predominate, although some GCMs project increases for some subcatchments, whilst PET increases for all scenarios. Inter-GCM uncertainty in projected precipitation is three to five times that of PET. With the exception of one GCM (HadGEM1), which projects a very small increase (3.9%), river inflows to the Delta decline. There is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of these reductions, ranging from 0.8% (HadCM3) to 52.7% (IPSL). Whilst flood extent for HadGEM1 increases (mean annual peak +1405 km 2 /+10.2%), for other GCMs it declines. These declines range from almost negligible changes to a 7903 km 2 (57.3%) reduction in the mean annual peak.ARTICLE HISTORY

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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GCM-related uncertainty for river flows and inundation under climate change: the Inner Niger Delta

Thompson

Crawley

Kingston

2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…Ho et al . () used climate projections from 41 GCMs under the RCP4.5 scenario in combination with the STELLA hydrological model to analyse the impacts of climate changes on streamflow in the Tocantins‐Araguaia River basin, Brazil, in the period 2071–2099. However, none of the abovementioned studies investigated the climate change impacts throughout the 21st century and under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Climate change impacts under representative concentration pathway scenarios on streamflow and droughts of basins in the Brazilian Cerrado biome

Rodrigues

Viola

Alvarenga

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Brazilian Cerrado biome is the largest and richest tropical savanna in the world. In order to understand the effects of climate changes on the hydrology of the Cerrado basins, this paper investigates the hydrological impacts of climate change throughout the 21st century under different emissions scenarios on the streamflow and on the droughts in the Sono, Manuel Alves da Natividade and Palma basins, located in the Brazilian Cerrado. For this purpose, the SWAT hydrological model driven by the downscaling of the HadGEM2‐ES and MIROC5 global climate models associated with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used in three time slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2099). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) were used to characterize droughts. In general, the results showed that the duration, intensity and frequency of the meteorological and hydrological droughts are expected to increase during the future periods. However, the hydrological droughts are projected to be larger than the meteorological droughts. Reductions in the streamflow are indicated in all future time slices and under both RCPs, especially, during dry periods, which may cause negative impacts in the ecological functions of the Cerrado biome, risk for reduction of the recharge of aquifers and risk for the electric energy production in northern Brazil.

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“…Hydrological model performance has been validated with a ratings approach similar to that adopted by Ho et al (2015) which calculate three statistical measures: (i) Pearson's correlation coefficient (r), (ii) Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient and (iii) percentage deviation (Dv) of simulated mean flow from observed mean flow.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble—the case of Ecuador

et al. 2017

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This study presents a method to assess the sensitivity of hydropower generation to uncertain water resource availability driven by future climate change. A hydrology-electricity modelling framework was developed and applied to six rivers where 10 hydropower stations operate, which together represent over 85% of Ecuador's installed hydropower capacity. The modelling framework was then forced with bias-corrected output from 40 individual global circulation model experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario. Impacts of changing climate on hydropower resource were quantified for 2071-2100 relative to a baseline period 1971-2000. Results show a wide annual average inflow range from + 277% to − 85% when individual climate experiments are assessed. The analysis also show that hydropower generation in Ecuador is highly uncertain and sensitive to climate change since variations in inflow to hydropower stations would directly result in changes in the expected hydropower potential. Annual hydroelectric power production in Ecuador is found to vary between − 55 and + 39% of the mean historical output when considering future inflow patterns to hydroelectric reservoirs covering one standard deviation of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 climate ensemble.

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Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

Cited by 38 publications

References 72 publications

GCM-related uncertainty for river flows and inundation under climate change: the Inner Niger Delta

GCM-related uncertainty for river flows and inundation under climate change: the Inner Niger Delta

Climate change impacts under representative concentration pathway scenarios on streamflow and droughts of basins in the Brazilian Cerrado biome

Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble—the case of Ecuador

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