Projections of primary liver cancer to 2030 in 30 countries worldwide

Valery, Patricia C.; Laversanne, Mathieu; Clark, Paul J.; Petrick, Jessica L.; McGlynn, Katherine A.; Bray, Freddie

doi:10.1002/hep.29498

Cited by 260 publications

(240 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Projections on chronic liver disease, cirrhosis and liver cancer mortality provide a basis for evaluating the 25 by 25 goal and can help healthcare systems design appropriate control strategies. However, previous studies have not successfully responded to this urgent need in Taiwan …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality trends of liver diseases from 1981 to 2016 and the projection to 2035 in Taiwan: An age‐period‐cohort analysis

Lee

2019

Liver International

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Background Projections on liver diseases mortality can provide a basis for evaluating the World Health Organization's “25 by 25” goal and can help healthcare systems design appropriate control strategies. This study evaluated whether the 25 by 25 goal can be achieved in Taiwan and discussed possible future control strategies. Methods Age‐period‐cohort models are used to estimate the mortality trends of liver diseases from 1981 to 2016 and project these trends to 2035. Results For chronic liver disease and cirrhosis among men, the age‐adjusted mortality rate decreased from 1981 to 1991, increased until 1999, and subsequently decreased again until 2016. For women, the age‐adjusted mortality rate exhibited an increasing but up‐and‐down trend from 1981 to 1998 and a decreasing trend to 2016. For liver cancer among men, the age‐adjusted mortality rate exhibited an increasing trend from 1981 to 2002 and a decreasing trend to 2016. For women, the age‐adjusted mortality rate exhibited an increasing trend from 1981 to 2003 and a decreasing trend to 2016. The age‐adjusted mortality rates of chronic liver disease, cirrhosis and liver cancer for both sexes are projected to decrease by more than 30% from 2016 to 2025 and by more than 55% from 2016 to 2035. Conclusion These results indicated that the 25 by 25 goal can be achieved for liver diseases mortality in Taiwan. In addition to viral hepatitis, the following risk factors may become the major causes of liver diseases in Taiwan in the future: alcohol and tobacco use, diabetes and obesity.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality trends of liver diseases from 1981 to 2016 and the projection to 2035 in Taiwan: An age‐period‐cohort analysis

Lee

2019

Liver International

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“…The most common type of primary liver cancer is hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). HCC has been the fastest‐rising cause of cancer‐related deaths in Western countries over the past two decades, and its incidence is expected to increase further in the coming decades . Most mortalities from HCC are attributable to hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV).…”

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confidence: 99%

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Is Cost‐Effective for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in High‐Risk Patients With Cirrhosis

Kim

Park

et al. 2019

Hepatology

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Ultrasonography (US) is generally recommended for the surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients at risk. However, in patients with cirrhosis who have sufficiently high HCC incidence, surveillance using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with liver‐specific contrast showed markedly higher sensitivity in detecting early‐stage HCC than US. This study aimed to compare the cost‐effectiveness of semiannual surveillance using MRI versus US in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to identify the population that would gain optimal cost‐effectiveness through MRI surveillance. We designed a Markov model to compare the expected costs and quality‐adjusted life‐years (QALYs), between MRI and US, with a 20‐year time horizon, from the health care system perspective. The starting age of the cohort was 50 years, and 71% had hepatitis B virus–associated cirrhosis. The cycle length was 6 months. Transition probabilities and costs were obtained mainly from a prospective cohort study (the PRIUS study, NCT01446666). Cost and effectiveness were discounted at 5%. An incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated and tested using sensitivity analyses. The cost‐effectiveness analysis indicated that the use of MRI incurred $5,562 incremental costs, 0.384 incremental life‐years (LYs), and 0.221 incremental QALYs compared to US. The annual HCC incidence was the most influential factor on the ICER. The ICERs were $14,474/LY and $25,202/QALY at an annual HCC incidence of 3%. When the HCC incidence rate was >1.81%, the ICER was below $50,000/QALY. With increased HCC incidence, MRI surveillance was acceptable as a cost‐effective option, even with an increased MRI/US cost ratio. Conclusion: Semiannual surveillance using MRI with liver‐specific contrast may be more cost‐effective than US in patients with virus‐associated compensated cirrhosis at sufficiently high HCC risk despite the higher test cost of MRI.

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“…Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignant disease and the fourth leading cause of cancer‐related deaths worldwide . The absolute number of primary cancer cases, of which HCC accounts for 75% to 85%, is expected to increase in the majority of 30 countries worldwide by 2030 . To detect HCC at an early stage, international guidelines from the United States, Europe, Asia, and Japan advise HCC surveillance of at‐risk populations .…”

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confidence: 99%

Novel Liquid Biopsy Test Based on a Sensitive Methylated SEPT9 Assay for Diagnosing Hepatocellular Carcinoma

et al. 2020

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Liquid biopsies are not used in practice for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Epi proColon is the first commercial blood‐based test for colorectal cancer screening based on methylated DNA testing of the septin 9 gene (SEPT9). However, Epi proColon has some disadvantages, including the requirement of a large amount of blood and lack of quantitative performance. Therefore, we previously developed a novel liquid biopsy test that can quantitatively detect even a single copy of methylated SEPT9 in a small amount of DNA. In the current study, we evaluated the application potential of this assay for diagnosing HCC. Study subjects included 80 healthy volunteers, 45 patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) without HCC, and 136 patients with HCC (stage 0, 12; stage A, 50; stage B, 31; stage C, 41; and stage D, 2), according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system. For the assay, DNA was treated with methylation‐sensitive restriction enzymes in two steps, followed by multiplex droplet digital polymerase chain reaction. The median copy number of methylated SEPT9 was 0.0, 2.0, and 6.4 in the healthy control, CLD, and HCC groups, respectively, with significant differences among the groups (HCC vs. healthy control, P < 0.001; HCC vs. CLD, P = 0.002; CLD vs. healthy control, P = 0.008). Assay sensitivity and specificity were 63.2% and 90.0%, respectively (cutoff value, 4.6 copies), in detecting HCC when compared with healthy subjects. The positive rate of methylated SEPT9 increased with HCC progression (stage 0, 41.7%; stage A, 58.0%; stage B, 61.3%; stage C, 75.6%; and stage D, 100%). Conclusion: We developed a sensitive methylated SEPT9 assay that might serve as a liquid biopsy test for diagnosing HCC.

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Projections of primary liver cancer to 2030 in 30 countries worldwide

Cited by 260 publications

References 47 publications

Mortality trends of liver diseases from 1981 to 2016 and the projection to 2035 in Taiwan: An age‐period‐cohort analysis

Mortality trends of liver diseases from 1981 to 2016 and the projection to 2035 in Taiwan: An age‐period‐cohort analysis

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Is Cost‐Effective for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in High‐Risk Patients With Cirrhosis

Novel Liquid Biopsy Test Based on a Sensitive Methylated SEPT9 Assay for Diagnosing Hepatocellular Carcinoma

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