Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity

Abstract

The growth of public opinion measurement in the last 40 years has added a new dimension to the study of presidential behavior. Not only have public evaluations become more newsworthy, but the importance of public support as a resource and determinant of political survival has been enhanced. Recent scholarship on the presidency has documented the value of public support, attempted to identify its major determinants, and speculated about the manner in which presidents might influence these evaluations.This research is designed to integrate these concerns into a single model and thereby to examine the interdependence between public support as a product of citizen decisions and as a political resource. First, a characterization of the citizen as an evaluator of the president is developed and used to construct an equation of presidential approval. Next, we develop an equation that explains presidential effectiveness in the legislative arena and illustrates the operation of public support as a presidential resource. The public support and legislative effectiveness equations are specified as a simultaneous equation system, estimated, and evaluated. The results of the model are then used to expand the conventional wisdom about the determinants of public support, to examine the consequences of the reciprocal relationship between public support and legislative success, and to generate ex post forecasts of President Reagan's support from 1981 through 1983.

The public's indifference map between inflation and unemployment: Empirical evidence for the Nixon, Ford, Carter and Reagan presidencies

“…Relevant studies include Mueller (1970), Hibbs (1974), Stimson (1976), Kenski (1977abc), Frey and Schneider (1978), Kernell (1978), Monroe (1978), Shapiro and Conforto (1980ab), Golden and Poterba (1980), Kenski (1980), Hibbs and Vasilatos (1981), Monroe (1981), Chappell (1983), Monroe and Levi (1983), Norporth and Yantek (1983), Monroe (1984), Chappell and Keech (1985ab), Ostrom and Simon (1985) and Michaels (1986). Monroe (1984) provides a summary of the literature.…”

Wars, Presidents, and Popularity: The Political Cost(s) of War Re-Examined

“…Peace and prosperity are two key determinants of the electorate's judgement of its leader(s) (Ostrom and Simon, 1985;Zaller, 1998). Prosperity is mostly measured through economic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment or inflation.…”

“…Extensive research shows that the number of casualties suffered in military conflicts undermines incumbent popularity (e.g., Mueller, 1973;Kernell, 1978;Ostrom and Simon, 1985;Gronke and Newman, 2003;Kriner, 2006;Eichenberg and Stoll, 2006;Voeten and Brewer, 2006;Karol and Miguel, 2007;Gartner, 2008). While casualty counts capture the public's appropriate sensitivity to human losses, an exclusive focus on such data to assess the political cost of wars might be incomplete.…”

Updating Political Evaluations: Policy Attitudes, Partisanship, and Presidential Assessments

“…On issues like these, there is consensus within the mass public about end goals and the public appears to evaluate the president on the basis of outcomes. Positive outcomes lead to heightened approval while negative outcomes produce lower approval, regardless of whether the president's actions are responsible (Kernell 1978;Hibbs et al 1982;MacKuen 1983;Ostrom and Simon 1985;Brody 1991;Newman 2002;Erikson et al 2002). When economic performance is strong and the country is at peace, presidential approval improves, and when the economy falters and unsuccessful war efforts continue, approval declines.…”