Pronóstico de la demanda turística de Chile basado en modelos lineales y no lineales estacionales

Abstract

TIn this paper, the Chilean tourism demand experienced during the period 2000‑2018 has been modelled using a linear regression model with dichotomous variables (MRL) and an ARIMA model with a seasonal component (SARIMA). The results show that the SARIMA approach is more effective in replicating the non‑stationary, non‑linear behaviour and the presence of seasonality in the series, with the forecasts obtained from this model presenting a low rate of error, in this case ‑5.6% for outbound tourism and ‑5.9% for inbound tourism. In consequence, this approach may be an effective tool for forecasting forecast tourism demand in the short term, and support for planning and management in the sector in the face of fluctuations in tourism demand.

Reflexiones teóricas sobre la demanda turística global: Incidencia en la gestión y comercialización turística

“…Desde el punto de vista de la planificación de la actividad, es muy importante poder realizar previsiones confiables respecto a la disposición de la demanda; particularmente, en el caso de presentar comportamientos de estacionalidad, que puede provocar caídas importantes en temporada baja y crecimientos significativos en temporada alta, según estudios realizados por Colther y Arriagada-Millaman (2021).…”

Dynamic Resource Allocation and Forecast of Snow Tourism Demand Based on Multiobjective Optimization Algorithm

“…It is believed that the elements of the ice and snow sports tourism service system are the management system, the product system, and the service system of the management system [7]. e construction of the ice and snow tourism service system should have the functions of guidance, evaluation and management, including the management system, supply system, commodity system, and ice and snow tourism service system [8]. e management system is divided into four levels: government administrative departments, sports bureaus, tourism development committees and other administrative units, and ice and snow sports tourism industry associations; the supply system includes leisure and entertainment venues, tourism companies, public welfare clubs, and lucrative sports companies; e commodity system includes ice and snow tourism products, spring leisure tourism products, winter festival tourism products, and national traditional ice and snow tourism products; and the service system includes supporting equipment and facilities, auxiliary equipment items, and services [9].…”