Propagating and Mitigating the Effect of Uncertainty in the Conceptual Design of a Monopropellant Propulsion System

Thunnissen, Daniel P.; Nakazono, Barry

doi:10.2514/6.2003-4469

Cited by 9 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…The topic of margins is discussed more fully in a companion paper. 1 The volume of total propellant is…”

Section: Propellant and Pressurantmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Aleatory uncertainty is inherent variation associated with a physical system or environment under consideration and is described in more detail in a companion paper. 1 It should be noted that the three missions are at very different phases in the design life: DS1 was successfully operated from 1998 to 2001, MER is in final preparation for launch, while STEREO is still in detailed design. This section provides a brief overview, major propulsion system requirements, resulting propulsion system design, and modeling values American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics assumed in the analysis of each mission.…”

Section: Model Analysis and Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A detailed breakout of the attitude control requirement and the PDFs of the ideal ∆Vs for the five TCMs are provided in a companion paper. 1 The MER propulsion system is equipped with two spherical titanium propellant tanks and two diametrically opposed thruster clusters, each containing four 4.5 N thrusters. MER uses helium as the pressurant.…”

Section: Mermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A classification of uncertainty for the design and development of complex multidisciplinary systems is provided in a companion paper. 1 The following section begins with a detailed definition of model uncertainty. An explanation of how uncertainty impacts model validity follows.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Model Uncertainty in the Conceptual Design of a Monopropellant Propulsion System

Thunnissen

Engelbrecht²,

Weiss

2003

39th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit

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“…The topic of margins is discussed more fully in a companion paper. 1 The volume of total propellant is…”

Section: Propellant and Pressurantmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Analysis and Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mermentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Assessing Model Uncertainty in the Conceptual Design of a Monopropellant Propulsion System

Thunnissen

Engelbrecht²,

Weiss

2003

39th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…MATLAB ® was chosen since the overall structure of the analysis (several MATLAB ® m-files) was created for a similar uncertainty analysis and modified for this analysis. 12 Total Power Required…”

Section: Total Massmentioning

confidence: 99%

Margin Determination in the Design and Development of a Thermal Control System

Thunnissen¹,

Tsuyuki²

2004

SAE Technical Paper Series

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A method for determining margins in conceptual-level design via probabilistic methods is described. The goal of this research is to develop a rigorous foundation for determining design margins in complex multidisciplinary systems. As an example application, the investigated method is applied to conceptual-level design of the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) cruise stage thermal control system. The method begins with identifying a set of tradable system-level parameters.Models that determine each of these tradable parameters are then created. The variables of the design are classified and assigned appropriate probability density functions. To characterize the resulting system, a Monte Carlo simulation is used. Probabilistic methods can then be used to represent uncertainties in the relevant models. Lastly, results of this simulation are combined with the risk tolerance of thermal engineers to guide in the determination of margin levels. The method is repeated until the thermal engineers are satisfied with the balance of system-level parameter values. For the thermal control example presented, margins for maximum component temperatures, dry mass, power required, schedule, and cost form the set of tradable system-level parameters. Use of this approach for the example presented yielded significant differences between the calculated design margins and the values assumed in the conceptual design of the MER cruise stage thermal control system.

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Design margins in industrial practice

et al. 2020

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As products are being developed over time and across organisations, the risk for unintended accumulation and mis-conception of margins allocated may occur. Accumulation of margins can result in over design, but also add risk due to under allocation. This paper describes the different terminology used in one organisation and shows the different roles margins play across the design process and in particular the how margins are a critical but often overlooked aspect of product platform design. The research was conducted in close collaboration with a truck manufacturer between 2013 and 2018. The objective was to gain understanding of the current use of margins, and associated concepts evolve along the product life cycle, across organisation and product platform representations. It was found that margins already play an important role throughout the entire design process; however, it is not recognised as a unified concept which is clearly communicated and tracked throughout the design process. Rather different stakeholders have different notions of margins and do not disclose the rationale behind adding margins or the amount that they have added. Margins also enabled designers to avoid design changes as existing components and systems can accommodate new requirements and thereby saving significant design time.

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Propagating and Mitigating the Effect of Uncertainty in the Conceptual Design of a Monopropellant Propulsion System

Cited by 9 publications

References 3 publications

Assessing Model Uncertainty in the Conceptual Design of a Monopropellant Propulsion System

Assessing Model Uncertainty in the Conceptual Design of a Monopropellant Propulsion System

Margin Determination in the Design and Development of a Thermal Control System

Design margins in industrial practice

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