Propagation of variability in climate projections within urban flood modelling: A multi-purpose impact analysis

Padulano, Roberta; Rianna, Guido; Costabile, Pierfranco; Costanzo, Carmelina; Giudice, Giuseppe Del; Mercogliano, Paola

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126756

Cited by 40 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…For both indicators, the relation is linear. A linear relation between rainfall intensity and flood features can also be found in Padulano et al (2021), where a different domain in the same City is tested with a different inundation model. It is useful to recall that linearity in the relation between rainfall intensity and flood features does not point to a linearity in the rainfall-runoff transformation, which is known as being a highly nonlinear process (Todini, 1988).…”

Section: Peak Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…The "bottom-up" feature of the proposed approach is clarified in Figure 2, as opposed to more common top-down approaches Padulano et al, 2021). As Figures 1 and 2 show, the flood modelling tool is run independently on the climate change estimation, which can be performed posteriorly.…”

Section: Workflow Of the Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To set infiltration rate values for impervious areas, a useful and straightforward strategy consists in assigning an infiltration rate equal to the design rainfall intensity of the sewer system, disrespectful of any lag time or filling rate Webber, Fletcher, et al, 2019). Padulano et al (2021) adopted a reduced value to account for the poor maintenance conditions of the sewer network.…”

Section: Simplifying Assumptions For Scenario Analysis and Data Unavailability Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even more so, the convective precipitation events which mostly cause localized flooding are only accounted for by very highresolution (the so-called "VHR" or "convection-permitting") climate models, usually available at horizontal resolutions <5 km (Fosser, Kendon, Chan, et al, 2020), whereas widespread climate projections such as those included in the EURO-CORDEX initiative (Jacob et al, 2020) only consider convective events as a sub-grid process and deal with them by means of parametrizations (Meredith et al, 2015;Reder et al, 2021). Nonetheless, the EURO-CORDEX initiative provides a large ensemble of climate projections, so enabling the estimation of the uncertainty due to the use of different models, numerical schemes, tuning strategies for model parameters, and parameters' values (Hourdin et al, 2017;Padulano et al, 2021). Such uncertainty sources cannot be accounted for by convectionpermitting models, since they are currently only available for limited domains and in a limited number (Fosser, Kendon, Chan, et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a consequence, research papers typically show high degree of detail in the flood modelling component, for example relying on coupled 1D-2D flood models, but with simple climate change information such as ensemble mean data (e.g., Kaspersen & Halsnaes, 2017), or they focus on the climate change part, for example, by fully considering a large ensemble of climate projections, but with simpler inundation models (e.g., Padulano et al, 2021). In this framework, simplified but effective strategies to estimate the impacts of climate change on urban flooding are required (and, in authors' knowledge, missing) especially in those situations where only essential information is known, such as elevation and land use.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using the present to estimate the future: A simplified approach for the quantification of climate change effects on urban flooding by scenario analysis

Padulano

Costabile

Costanzo

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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Understanding and modelling pluvial flood patterns is pivotal for the estimation of flood impacts in urban areas, especially in a climate change perspective. However, urban flood modelling under climate change conditions poses several challenges. On one hand, the identification and collection of climate change data suitable for floodrelated evaluations requires consistent computational and scientific effort. On the other hand, large difficulties can arise in the reproduction of the rainfall-runoff transformation process in cases when only little information about the subsurface processes is known. In this perspective, a simplified approach is proposed to address the challenges regarding the quantitative estimation of climate change effects on urban flooding for real case applications. The approach is defined as "bottom-up" because climate change information is not included in flood modelling, but it is only invoked for the interpretation of results. In other words, the challenge faced in this work is the development of a modelling strategy that is expeditious, because it does not require flood simulations for future rainfall scenarios, but only under current climate conditions, thus reducing the overall computational effort; and it is flexible, because results can be easily updated once new climate change data, scenarios or methods become available, without the need of additional flood simulations. To simulate real case applications, the approach is tested for a scenario analysis, where different return periods and hyetograph shapes are used as input for urban inundation modelling in Naples, Italy. The approach can support public and private stakeholders, such as land administrators and water systems managers; moreover, it represents a valuable and effective basis for climate change risk communication strategies.

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Section: Peak Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Workflow Of the Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simplifying Assumptions For Scenario Analysis and Data Unavailability Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Using the present to estimate the future: A simplified approach for the quantification of climate change effects on urban flooding by scenario analysis

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Costanzo

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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Assessment of flood regulation service based on source–sink landscape analysis in urbanized watershed

Zhou

Jiao

Han

et al. 2022

River Research & Apps

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Facing climate change and rapid urbanization, urban flooding has exposed human and properties to increasing disaster risks. The attention from researchers and decision‐makers to understand the key role of flood regulation service (FRS) in flood management has arisen. However, the mechanism of FRS supply–demand is little known from landscape scale. The FRS assessment methodology considering interacts between source, sink, and flow landscape was proposed in this study. The spatial distributions of surface runoff generation, runoff reduction capacity, and flood inundation were mapped using one‐dimensional rainfall–runoff method SCS‐CN and two‐dimensional flood propagation model CADDIES. Four 3‐hour designed rainfall scenarios ranging from nuisance to extreme events (3a, 11a, 56a, and 100a) were simulated. The Liuyang River Watershed in Changsha Municipality, China was selected for case study. The results showed that, the differences of runoff reduction coefficient and runoff generation volume between vegetation and built‐up landscape have shortened. The peak flood depth, extent of flood inundation, and peak flood velocity have increased continuously with the growing rainfall intensity. The number of source–sink mismatch catchment was the highest under 56 and 100a, and the most of source‐sink match catchments were observed under 3a. Under four rainfall scenarios, the changes of source–sink relationships were witnessed and the potentials of flow zone in source–sink mismatch catchments have increased. The FRS management framework concerning supply–demand connections has been proposed based on source–sink–flow analysis. These findings could provide a scientific basis for sustainable urban flood management and disaster risk mitigation.

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Impacts of climate change on IDF curves for urban stormwater management systems design: the case of Dodola Town, Ethiopia

Bibi

Tekesa

2022

Environ Monit Assess

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Propagation of variability in climate projections within urban flood modelling: A multi-purpose impact analysis

Cited by 40 publications

References 73 publications

Using the present to estimate the future: A simplified approach for the quantification of climate change effects on urban flooding by scenario analysis

Using the present to estimate the future: A simplified approach for the quantification of climate change effects on urban flooding by scenario analysis

Assessment of flood regulation service based on source–sink landscape analysis in urbanized watershed

Impacts of climate change on IDF curves for urban stormwater management systems design: the case of Dodola Town, Ethiopia

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