We show that $$\mathbb {P}( \ell _X(0,T] \le 1)=(c_X+o(1))T^{-(1-H)}$$
P
(
ℓ
X
(
0
,
T
]
≤
1
)
=
(
c
X
+
o
(
1
)
)
T
-
(
1
-
H
)
, where $$\ell _X$$
ℓ
X
is the local time measure at 0 of any recurrent H-self-similar real-valued process X with stationary increments that admits a sufficiently regular local time and $$c_X$$
c
X
is some constant depending only on X. A special case is the Gaussian setting, i.e. when the underlying process is fractional Brownian motion, in which our result settles a conjecture by Molchan [Commun. Math. Phys. 205, 97-111 (1999)] who obtained the upper bound $$1-H$$
1
-
H
on the decay exponent of $$\mathbb {P}( \ell _X(0,T] \le 1)$$
P
(
ℓ
X
(
0
,
T
]
≤
1
)
. Our approach establishes a new connection between persistence probabilities and Palm theory for self-similar random measures, thereby providing a general framework which extends far beyond the Gaussian case.