Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California

Strader, Anne; Schneider, Max; Schorlemmer, Danijel

doi:10.1093/gji/ggx268

Cited by 27 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Conversely, earthquake-catalog data better constrain intraplate seismicity and capture clustering patterns along plate boundaries. These findings are similar to those from regional forecasting experiments such as the RELM experiment (Strader et al, 2017). Seismicity models such as UCERF2 that incorporate geodetic strain rates not only forecast seismicity patterns consistent with observations, but their forecast performance over consecutive five-year time intervals is more consistent than for models solely based on smoothed seismicity (Helmstetter et al, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…Because of the increased power of the global tests relative to regional forecasting experiments such as RELM (Strader et al, 2017), such evaluations may not require decades to build confidence.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although successful retrospective test results are necessary to detect initial seismicity model limitations, such tests are prone to bias because data included in calibrating the model are also used to test it. Only truly prospective evaluation is considered rigorous, because it has the ability to estimate the forecasting power of a seismicity model Zechar et al, 2010b;Strader et al, 2017). Since October 1, 2015, seismicity forecasts produced by GEAR1, SHIFT GSRM2f, and KJSS have undergone prospective testing within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP).…”

Section: Seismicity Forecast Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prospective Evaluation of Global Earthquake Forecast Models: 2 Yrs of Observations Provide Preliminary Support for Merging Smoothed Seismicity with Geodetic Strain Rates

Strader

Werner

Bayona³

et al. 2018

Seismological Research Letters

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The Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1) seismicity model uses an optimized combination of geodetic strain rates, hypotheses about converting strain rates to seismicity rates from plate tectonics, and earthquake-catalog data to estimate global m w ≥ 5.767 shallow (≤ 70 km) seismicity rates. It comprises two parent models: a strain rate-based model, and a smoothed-seismicity based model. The GEAR1 model was retrospectively evaluated and calibrated using earthquake data from 2005-2012, resulting in a preferred log-linear, multiplicative combination of the parent forecasts. Since October 1, 2015, the GEAR1 model has undergone prospective evaluation within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) testing center. We present initial prospective forecast test results for the GEAR1 model, its tectonic and seismicity components, and for the first iteration of the strain rate-based model, during the period October 1, 2015 to September 7, 2017. Observed earthquakes are consistent with the GEAR1 forecast, supporting a near-even contribution from geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity in constraining long-term global shallow earthquake rates. Comparative test results likewise support 1 2 that GEAR1 is more informative than either of its components alone. The tectonic forecasts do not effectively anticipate observed spatial earthquake distribution, largely due to intraplate earthquakes and a higher-than-implied degree of spatial earthquake clustering.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Seismicity Forecast Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prospective Evaluation of Global Earthquake Forecast Models: 2 Yrs of Observations Provide Preliminary Support for Merging Smoothed Seismicity with Geodetic Strain Rates

Strader

Werner

Bayona³

et al. 2018

Seismological Research Letters

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“…(1 January 2006-1 January 2011). It provided evidence that the locations of past shocks, particularly the many small (M2+) ones recorded by dense networks, can contain more predictive skill of moderate to strong earthquakes over a 5-to 10-year period than many other forecast approaches, including geological (fault-based), geodetic, and tectonic models [Schorlemmer et al, 2010c;Zechar et al, 2013;Strader et al, 2017]. One of the participating forecasts, the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 2 (UCERF2), is particularly important because it provided government agency hazard estimates that set 6…”

Section: The Philosophy Behind Csepmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This concept of rigorous and prospective testing quickly gained support, and SCEC started the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with funding provided by the W. M. Keck Foundation [Jordan, 2006]. Its first achievement was the development of the testing center software system Zechar et al, 2010b] for the RELM experiment [Field , 2007;Zechar et al, 2013;Strader et al, 2017]. Over the following years, CSEP has expanded to four international testing centers that collectively test over four hundred models and model versions in a variety of tectonic settings and on a global scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities

Schorlemmer

Werner

Marzocchi

et al. 2018

Seismological Research Letters

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103

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The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP's goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and to improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at the global scale, and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new, and sometimes surprising, insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.

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Embracing Data Incompleteness for Better Earthquake Forecasting

Mizrahi¹,

Nandan²,

Wiemer³

2021

Preprint

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Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California

Cited by 27 publications

References 34 publications

Prospective Evaluation of Global Earthquake Forecast Models: 2 Yrs of Observations Provide Preliminary Support for Merging Smoothed Seismicity with Geodetic Strain Rates

Prospective Evaluation of Global Earthquake Forecast Models: 2 Yrs of Observations Provide Preliminary Support for Merging Smoothed Seismicity with Geodetic Strain Rates

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities

Embracing Data Incompleteness for Better Earthquake Forecasting

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