Prospects for the Development of a Systemic Global Economic Crisis

The modeling of Kondratiev cycles in economic dynamics in the form of Fourier series has been improved. Models have been developed that allow, by varying the reference points and the duration of the periods, to obtain estimates of these parameters with high accuracy and give estimates of accuracy in the form of dispersion. On the basis of the obtained models and algorithms, estimates of the beginnings of the formation of the duration of the periods of Kondratiev cycles in developed countries were obtained and models of the productivity of technological structures in the developed countries of the modern world were built. The productivity of the fourth technological order was determined by the per capita income of 2,500 US dollars in 1990. The productivity of the fifth technological order was determined by the per capita income of 12,200 US dollars in 1990. The productivity of the sixth technological order was determined by the per capita income of 25,300 US dollars in 1990. Modeling made it possible to predict the end of the downward wave of the modern Kondratiev cycle in world economic dynamics, the systemic global economic crisis associated with the transition to the dominance of the sixth technological order in 2049–2055. Intensification of crises associated with business cycles, financial and investment cycles associated with the downward half-wave of the Kondratiev cycle is predicted starting from 2024-2027.

Improving the Models of Kondratyev Cycles in Economic Dynamics

Basovskiy

Basovskaya

2022

New Cycles and Systemic Crises of the World Economy

Basovskaya

Basovskiy

2022

The purpose of the work was to identify new long-term cycles of modern world economic dynamics. In the world economic dynamics, long-term - half-century cycles were identified, identified as the cycles of N. Kondratiev, which were formed during the formation of the industrial economy. The transition to a post-industrial economy could change the cyclic nature of economic dynamics. To assess possible changes in the system of long-term cycles of economic dynamics, a spectral analysis of the series of per capita GDP of the leaders of the world economy in terms of labor productivity was performed. The results showed that in the 20th century the economic dynamics of Great Britain and the United States formed powerful cycles with a period of 25-30 years. A spectral analysis of the series of per capita GDP in the world for the period 1962-2019 has been performed. The results obtained indicate that at the turn of the 20th-21st centuries, powerful cycles with a period of 25-30 years were formed in world economic dynamics, significantly exceeding half-century cycles in terms of power. Econometric models with a cyclic (harmonic) component are constructed to estimate the parameters of cycles. At the first stage of research, the model of world per capita GDP was guarded, the optimized period of which was 65. At the second stage, a model was built, the optimized period of which was 25 years. The possibility of the existence of two models indicates that in the economic systems of developed countries, in the world economy, transitional processes are taking place. Both models may reflect the beginning of the formation at the beginning of the second decade of a new technological order, characteristic of the post-industrial economic system. This means the possibility of a systemic global economic crisis in 2022-2023.

Prospects for the Development of Crisis Phenomena in the Economies of Developed Countries

Basovskaya,

Basovskiy

2023

The paper provides a forecast for the development of crisis phenomena in the economies of developed countries based on the modeling of N. Kondratiev’s cycles in the time series of real per capita GDP. To determine the dates of the beginning of the upward half-waves of the Kondratiev’s cycles, econometric models with a cyclic (harmonic) component were built. As a result of the study, it was found that the earliest manifestations of growth instability, the possibility of crisis phenomena in the economy are typical for the USA, Great Britain, and Italy. For most developed countries, the 2020s are the most likely opportunities for the development of crisis phenomena. Taking into account the possible reduction in the duration of Kondratiev’s cycles in post-industrial economic systems, a spectral analysis of quotations on the US stock market was performed, which showed a reduction in the duration of cycles to 40 years. The results obtained allow us to give the following estimate. For most developed countries, the most likely opportunities for the development of crisis phenomena are the 2010s and 2020s. Systemic crises in the economies of most developed countries can be expected in the 2020s and 2030s.