Estimates of coefficients of elasticity of the contribution of new ways to GDP per capita on the use of the new technologies estimated by capital-labor ratioof work by new fixed assets and on the use of the human capital estimated by a share of busy workers with the higher education during an economic crisis are received. The received results allow estimating the change of efficiency of use of new technologies and the human capital in the country and in regions of Central Federal District during the crisis. In the majority of regions, it corresponds with all-Russian tendencies. However, in several regions elasticity of the contribution of the human capital has not decreased. These are Kaluga, Kostroma, Yaroslavl regions. Elasticity of the contribution of the human capital to GRP provided with new technological ways the Voronezh, Ryazan, Tula regions has significantly increased. In the same regions elasticity of the contribution of new business assets has decreased less considerably, than on average on the Russian regions. Identification of the reasons of this phenomenon demands an additional research.
The article discusses the questions of identifying and researching factors that providing economic growth and increasing labor productivity in the process of forming the post-industrial economy of modern Russia. It is shown that Russian and foreign research on this subject are largely controversial — a set of factors affecting labor productivity has not been adequately established, in many cases the estimates obtained do not differ from those previously known, turn out to be insignificant or raise doubts about the neglect of methodological norms, or statistically incorrect approaches. The conclusion drawn on the need for additional research based on the use of a new technique, which consists in assessing the coefficients of productivity elasticity using data that vary across all regions of Russia. This article reflects the stage of the study, which tested 10 indicators for the last three years for all regions of the Russian Federation. Because of the analysis, specification matrixes of indicators characterizing the influence of these factors on labor productivity obtained, and the characteristics of their correlation with productivity evaluated by the F-criterion. It is concluded that 6 indicators have a significant correlation. We also analyzed the correlation between the indicators to detect multicollenarity. It is concluded that the following factors have a significant positive effect on labor productivity in the regions of modern Russia: personal computers in organizations, personal computers with Internet access in organizations, personnel engaged in research and development, researchers with advanced degrees. Closely related to these factors are the factors of transport infrastructure and the number of faculty of universities, which can affect labor productivity.
The econometric models constructed in the work allowed us to establish the main production factors that streamline the productivity level — per capita GRP in modern Russia. The most significant positive impact on productivity is exerted by capital, which estimated by the labor funds. The level of education of the employed population has a significant positive impact on productivity. In most regions of the country, new technologies, embodied in new fixed assets, have a positive impact on productivity. In most regions of the country, the number of officials has a significant negative impact on productivity.
The transition to a postindustrial, information, digital economy is capable of ensuring multiple growth in labor productivity. The significance of the process actualizes scientific research in the field of resource support for the development of post-industrial economy in Russia. However, until now, there is an unequivocal opinion on the system of factors of economic growth and increase in labor productivity; research results are often contradictory. To assess the factors determining the productivity of labor, it proposed to study the influence of the provision of regional economies with fixed capital, human and intellectual capital. The importance of infrastructural, institutional, social, innovative factors, inflation processes and participation in foreign economic activity is assessed.
The work is devoted to forecasting the prospects for the development of a systemic economic crisis of the world economy. Forecasting is carried out on the base of N. Kondratyev econometric models of cycles in the world economy and the economies of the largest countries of the modern world. The results obtained allow us to establish that the beginning of Kondratiev’s upward halfwaves relates to the years 1999–2001. The expected duration of the period of the modern Kondratyev cycle is 50–54 years. The results of the study of the dynamics of the world economy, the results of studies of the economic dynamics of developed countries shows that the start of the upward half-waves of the Kondratieff cycle is expected in 1999–2001 goals. It can be associated with the transition to dominance of the fifth technological order, the emergence of the sixth way of life and the beginning of the death of the fourth technological way. The completion of the downward wave of this Kondratiev cycle and the systemic global economic crisis associated with the transition to the dominance of the sixth technological order should expected in 2049–2055. Since the likelihood of economic crises with business cycles, financial and investment cycles begins to increase with the transition to the downward half-wave of the Kondratyev cycle, from 2024–2027 one can expect a deepening of periodic crisis phenomena in the global economy.
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