Prospects of modelling societal transitions: Position paper of an emerging community

Holtz, Georg; Alkemade, Floortje; Haan, Fjalar de; Köhler, Jonathan; Trutnevyte, Evelina; Luthe, Tobias; Halbe, Johannes; Papachristos, George; Chappin, E.J.L.; Kwakkel, Jan H.; Ruutu, Sampsa

doi:10.1016/j.eist.2015.05.006

Cited by 174 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…Participatory methods in modelling are particularly helpful in clarifying and identifying fundamental and latent assumptions and behaviour of real-life agents [26]. Other types of socio-technical Complex Adaptive Systems have successfully been developed and evaluated by using participatory modelling techniques for ABMs, e.g., in resource and water management [27,44,45].…”

Section: Outcomementioning

confidence: 99%

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Developing and Understanding Design Interventions in Relation to Industrial Symbiosis Dynamics

et al. 2017

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Symbiotic Urban Agriculture Networks (SUANs) are a specific class of symbiotic networks that intend to close material and energy loops from cities and urban agriculture. Private and public stakeholders in SUANs face difficulties in the implementation of technological and organisational design interventions due to the complex nature of the agricultural and urban environment. Current research on the dynamics of symbiotic networks, especially Industrial Symbiosis (IS), is based on historical data from practice, and provides only partly for an understanding of symbiotic networks as a sociotechnical complex adaptive system. By adding theory and methodology from Design Science, participatory methods, and by using agent-based modelling as a tool, prescriptive knowledge is developed in the form of grounded and tested design rules for SUANs. In this paper, we propose a conceptual Design Science method with the aim to develop an empirically validated participatory agent-based modelling strategy that guides sociotechnical design interventions in SUANs. In addition, we present a research agenda for further strategy, design intervention, and model development through case studies regarding SUANs. The research agenda complements the existing analytical work by adding a necessary Design Science approach, which contributes to bridging the gap between IS dynamics theory and practical complex design issues.

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Section: Outcomementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Considering the need for prescriptive knowledge on design interventions, and coherent with observations by Holtz et al [26], Batten [43], and Hare [27], participatory modelling methods can be used to:…”

Section: Outcomementioning

confidence: 99%

Developing and Understanding Design Interventions in Relation to Industrial Symbiosis Dynamics

et al. 2017

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“…(Geels et al, 2016: 578) The philosophical position of Holtz et al (2015) is somewhat ambivalent in our view. On the one hand, system dynamics and agent-based modellers have traditionally argued either that their approaches do not necessarily adhere to a particular philosophical position (Lane 2001), or that critical realism is an appropriate philosophical underpinning for such simulation (Mingers 2000, Miller 2015.…”

Section: Figure 1: Characterizing Different Systems Based On Compleximentioning

confidence: 65%

“…Now, it is refreshing to see the emergence of a dedicated modelling community within the transitions field. The authors of a recent paper in EIST (Holtz et al 2015) make many valuable points, and the emergence of this community within the wider transitions field is to be welcomed. In particular, it is exciting to see the efforts of modellers to grapple with the co-evolutionary, multi-agent character of transitions, which contrasts favourably with dominant modelling traditions such as CGE (Computable General Equilibrium), IAMs (Integrated Assessment Models) or linear optimisation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ten challenges for computer models in transitions research: Commentary on Holtz et al.

McDowall¹,

Geels

2017

Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions

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Abstract:The emergence of a dedicated modelling community within the transitions field is to be welcomed, and the authors of a recent paper in EIST (Holtz et al. 2015) make many valuable points. We build on their position paper in two ways. First, we reflect on some of the ways in which modelling in other areas of 'sustainability science' has sometimes fallen short of the strengths articulated. Second, we extend some of Holtz et al.'s discussion of the epistemological and ontological challenges for modelling transitions. We suggest ten challenges in response to the more optimistic claims made by Holtz et al., and we provide some additional suggestions for ways forward. In particular, we suggest that seeking closer integration of qualitative, socio-technical analysis with models may not always be the best strategy. Rather, pluralist 'bridging strategies' and dialogue between analytic approaches may be more productive.

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The potential contribution of transition theory to the analysis of bioclusters and their role in the transition to a bioeconomy

Hermans

2018

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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Biocluster initiatives have become an important tool for governments to establish, promote, and strengthen economic collaboration, learning, innovation, and employment within particular regions. However, in addition to issues like competitiveness and employment, bioclusters operate with the additional goal of fostering the transition to a sustainable bioeconomy. The profound changes that are required for a successful shift from a fossil-based economy to a bioeconomy are called transitions and the relatively new scientifi c fi eld of transition theory has emerged to study them. The aim of this paper is to show the contribution that transition theory can make to the study of bioclusters. In this paper I will review frameworks from the study of sustainability transitions (multi-level perspective and technical innovation systems) and frameworks from theories of evolutionary economic geography and cluster studies (regional and sectoral innovation systems). The review shows how the choice of a particular framework will shape the analysis of the biocluster through the particular focus and delineation associated with each framework. The review shows the advantages and disadvantages these frameworks have for incorporating the various issues related to the shift towards a bioeconomy that are currently neglected in the literature on bioclusters.

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Prospects of modelling societal transitions: Position paper of an emerging community

Cited by 174 publications

References 82 publications

Developing and Understanding Design Interventions in Relation to Industrial Symbiosis Dynamics

Developing and Understanding Design Interventions in Relation to Industrial Symbiosis Dynamics

Ten challenges for computer models in transitions research: Commentary on Holtz et al.

The potential contribution of transition theory to the analysis of bioclusters and their role in the transition to a bioeconomy

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