Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines

Daron, Joseph; Macadam, Ian; Kanamaru, Hideki; Cinco, Thelma A.; Katzfey, Jack; Scannell, Claire; Jones, R. G.; Villafuerte, Marcelino Q.; Cruz, Faye; Narisma, Gemma; Delfino, Rafaela Jane; Lasco, Rodel D.; Manalo, John A.; Ares, Emma D.; Solis, Ana Liza S.; Guzman, Rosalina de; Basconcillo, Joseph; Tangang, Fredolin

doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2183-5

Cited by 20 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Due to the voluntary nature of this initiative, the number of simulations for each RCM is not uniform. In this study, seven ensemble members were selected from the CORDEX-SEA simulations based on the availability of model output during the time of analysis, hence, considered as an "ensemble of opportunity" (e.g., Daron et al, 2018). These seven members came from six GCMs and three RCMs (Table 1).…”

Section: Observed Data Models and Simulation Detailsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected future changes in mean precipitation over Thailand based on multi‐model regional climate simulations of CORDEX Southeast Asia

Tangang

Juneng

Salimun

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper highlights detailed projected changes in rainfall over Thailand for the early (2011–2040), middle (2041–2070) and late (2071–2099) periods of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the high‐resolution multi‐model simulations of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Southeast Asia. The ensemble mean is calculated based on seven members consisting of six general circulation models (GCMs) and three regional climate models (RCMs). Generally, the ensemble mean precipitation agrees reasonably well with observations, best represented by the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) data, over Thailand during the historical period (1976–2005). However, inter‐model variations can be large among ensemble members especially during dry months (December to March) for northern‐central‐eastern parts, and throughout the year for the southern parts of Thailand. Similarly for future projection periods, inter‐model variations in the sign and magnitude of changes exist. The ensemble means of projected changes in rainfall for both RCPs during dry months show distinct contrast between the northern‐central‐eastern parts and the southern parts of Thailand with generally wetter and drier conditions, respectively. The magnitude of change can be as high as 15% of the historical period, which varies depending on the sub‐region, season, projection period, and RCP scenario. In contrast, generally drier conditions are projected during the wet season (June to September) throughout the country for both RCPs where the rainfall reduction can be as high as 10% in some areas. However, the magnitude of projected rainfall changes of some individual models can be much larger than the ensemble means, exceeding 40% in some cases. These projected changes are related to the changes in regional circulations associated with the winter and summer monsoons, which are projected to weaken. The drier (wetter) condition is associated with the enhanced subsidence (rising motion).

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Section: Observed Data Models and Simulation Detailsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected future changes in mean precipitation over Thailand based on multi‐model regional climate simulations of CORDEX Southeast Asia

Tangang

Juneng

Salimun

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…For the reasons provided earlier, and given that the models' projected changes in temperature are giving different magnitudes despite of their almost similar performance simulating the baseline climate, specifically the CCAM simulations conducted in CSIRO, an equal‐weighted multi‐model mean is used to derive the projected changes in temperature. Nevertheless, the values obtained here are close to the range of projected temperature increase over the region provided in the recent report of the IPCC (IPCC, ), and cover the range of projected temperature increase obtained in the earlier SRES‐based projections provided for the country (PAGASA, ), and more recently with the RCP‐based projections (Daron et al ., ).…”

Section: Mid‐21st Century (2036–2065) Climate Projections For the Phimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, at regional scales, the climate is influenced by processes that are often too small to be adequately resolved by GCMs, which typically have horizontal resolutions between 100 and 300 km. Furthermore, impact assessments often require climate information at much higher spatial resolutions than current GCMs can provide (e.g., Giorgi, 2008;Glotter et al, 2014;Daron et al, 2018).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Although RCM simulations from the CORDEX-Southeast Asia and a comprehensive projections-focused project for the Philippines are not available, alternative RCM simulations relevant to climate projections for the Philippines are available but have yet to be analysed in this context. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has worked collaboratively with international partners, including the UK Met Office and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in projects that have run a variety of high-resolution climate simulations covering the country using different GCMs and downscaling models (see Daron et al, 2018). To provide timely information to those planning for climate change in the Philippines, a subset of these dynamically downscaled simulations have been used to provide projections on changes in future tropical cyclone activity (see Gallo et al, 2018).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models

Villafuerte¹,

Macadam

Daron

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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To help meet increasing demands for high‐resolution climate change projections in the Philippines, this study provides the results of multiple dynamically downscaled climate model simulations for projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the country by the mid‐21st century (2036–2065) relative to the baseline period (1971–2000), under the RCP8.5 scenario. The model‐simulated seasonal means of temperature, rainfall, and low‐level wind patterns were first compared with observations during the baseline period. Comparisons made between the model‐derived and APHRODITE observation‐based gridded temperature and rainfall data indicate that the dynamically downscaled simulations provide an overall improvement from their driving global climate models in capturing the spatial patterns of rainfall over the country, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the country's mean temperature. Future climate projections show that the country's climate is expected to become warmer by the mid‐21st century, with a multi‐model ensemble mean increase of 1.2 to 1.9°C, relative to the baseline period, projected for many parts of the country and across most seasons. Slightly higher increases are projected during the country's hottest season, March–April–May. However, there are large differences in the models' projected rainfall changes by the mid‐21st century across seasons and regions. For most parts of the country, the multi‐model ensemble includes simulations that show increases and simulations that show decreases in rainfall. Nevertheless, there is a tendency of model projections towards wetter conditions over northern and central sections of the country (particularly in the December–January–February season) and drier conditions in the southern region of the country in almost all seasons. The results demonstrate the need for communities in the Philippines to adapt to a future warmer climate and prepare for a range of possible future changes in rainfall and temperature.

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“…2 Models, simulation setups and observed data Table 1 provides a list of the simulations conducted in CORDEX-SEA with RCMs and 11 driving CMIP Phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs and considered as an "ensemble of opportunity" (Daron et al 2018). A description of the RCMs used is provided in Table 2.…”

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Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

et al. 2020

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This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multimodel simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E-146.5° E, 14.8° S-27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976-2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011-2040), mid (2041-2070) and late twenty-first century (2071-2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10-20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10-30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections.

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Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines

Cited by 20 publications

References 42 publications

Projected future changes in mean precipitation over Thailand based on multi‐model regional climate simulations of CORDEX Southeast Asia

Projected future changes in mean precipitation over Thailand based on multi‐model regional climate simulations of CORDEX Southeast Asia

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models

Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

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