Proxyeconomics, a theory and model of proxy-based competition and cultural evolution

Braganza, Oliver

doi:10.1098/rsos.211030

Cited by 19 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 185 publications

(327 reference statements)

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“…However, evolutionary theory predicts that if females are judging males based on proxies, males will find ways to cheat the test (McCoy & Haig, 2020). Any proxies invite cheating (Braganza, 2022). For example, guppies cannot synthesize carotenoids but are judged by potential mates based on their carotenoid‐pigmented spots.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The carotenoid redshift: Physical basis and implications for visual signaling

McCoy,

Shultz,

Dall

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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Carotenoid pigments are the basis for much red, orange, and yellow coloration in nature and central to visual signaling. However, as pigment concentration increases, carotenoid signals not only darken and become more saturated but they also redshift; for example, orange pigments can look red at higher concentration. This occurs because light experiences exponential attenuation, and carotenoid‐based signals have spectrally asymmetric reflectance in the visible range. Adding pigment disproportionately affects the high‐absorbance regions of the reflectance spectra, which redshifts the perceived hue. This carotenoid redshift is substantial and perceivable by animal observers. In addition, beyond pigment concentration, anything that increases the path length of light through pigment causes this redshift (including optical nano‐ and microstructures). For example, male Ramphocelus tanagers appear redder than females, despite the same population and concentration of carotenoids, due to microstructures that enhance light–pigment interaction. This mechanism of carotenoid redshift has sensory and evolutionary consequences for honest signaling in that structures that redshift carotenoid ornaments may decrease signal honesty. More generally, nearly all colorful signals vary in hue, saturation, and brightness as light–pigment interactions change, due to spectrally asymmetrical reflectance within the visible range of the relevant species. Therefore, the three attributes of color need to be considered together in studies of honest visual signaling.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The carotenoid redshift: Physical basis and implications for visual signaling

McCoy,

Shultz,

Dall

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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“…This reflects an instance of proxy appropriation because consumers cease to be the "sovereign" of the market (Chirat, 2020;Galbraith, 1998). Instead, market-level proxies hack neural proxies to serve the higher-level goal of maximizing profitability and consumption (Braganza, 2022a(Braganza, , 2022b. Topical examples abound: For instance, "dark patterns" are digital interfaces designed to increase profits by deceiving or manipulating consumer (Luguri & Strahilevitz, 2021;Mathur et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dead rats, dopamine, performance metrics, and peacock tails: Proxy failure is an inherent risk in goal-oriented systems

John¹,

Caldwell²,

McCoy³

et al. 2023

Behav Brain Sci

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When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. For example, when standardized test scores in education become targets, teachers may start ‘teaching to the test’, leading to breakdown of the relationship between the measure--test performance--and the underlying goal--quality education. Similar phenomena have been named and described across a broad range of contexts, such as economics, academia, machine-learning, and ecology. Yet it remains unclear whether these phenomena bear only superficial similarities, or if they derive from some fundamental unifying mechanism. Here, we propose such a unifying mechanism, which we label proxy failure. We first review illustrative examples and their labels, such as the ‘Cobra effect’, ‘Goodhart's law’, and ‘Campbell's law’. Second, we identify central prerequisites and constraints of proxy failure, noting that it is often only a partial failure or divergence. We argue that whenever incentivization or selection is based on an imperfect proxy measure of the underlying goal, a pressure arises which tends to make the proxy a worse approximation of the goal. Third, we develop this perspective for three concrete contexts, namely neuroscience, economics and ecology, highlighting similarities and differences. Fourth, we outline consequences of proxy failure, suggesting it is key to understanding the structure and evolution of goal-oriented systems. Our account draws on a broad range of disciplines, but we can only scratch the surface within each. We thus hope the present account elicits a collaborative enterprise, entailing both critical discussion as well as extensions in contexts we have missed.

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“…There is a natural response to the preceding argument: External factors belonging to the economic, social, or institutional structure of science can also help explain the phenomena we just appealed to in order to support the generalization bias account. For instance, the economic costs of studies with larger samples, publication bias, methodological training, or academic competition also contribute to the use of small, WEIRD samples, and overgeneralizations from them (Braganza, 2022; DeJesus et al., 2019; Higginson & Munafò, 2016; Smaldino & McElreath, 2016).…”

Section: Scientific Inductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generalization Bias in Science

2022

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Many scientists routinely generalize from study samples to larger populations. It is commonly assumed that this cognitive process of scientific induction is a voluntary inference in which researchers assess the generalizability of their data and then draw conclusions accordingly. We challenge this view and argue for a novel account. The account describes scientific induction as involving by default a generalization bias that operates automatically and frequently leads researchers to unintentionally generalize their findings without sufficient evidence. The result is unwarranted, overgeneralized conclusions. We support this account of scientific induction by integrating a range of disparate findings from across the cognitive sciences that have until now not been connected to research on the nature of scientific induction. The view that scientific induction involves by default a generalization bias calls for a revision of the current thinking about scientific induction and highlights an overlooked cause of the replication crisis in the sciences. Commonly proposed interventions to tackle scientific overgeneralizations that may feed into this crisis need to be supplemented with cognitive debiasing strategies against generalization bias to most effectively improve science.

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Proxyeconomics, a theory and model of proxy-based competition and cultural evolution

Cited by 19 publications

References 185 publications

The carotenoid redshift: Physical basis and implications for visual signaling

The carotenoid redshift: Physical basis and implications for visual signaling

Dead rats, dopamine, performance metrics, and peacock tails: Proxy failure is an inherent risk in goal-oriented systems

Generalization Bias in Science

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