Public Debt Indicators in Latin American Countries: Snowball Effect, Currency Mismatch and the Original Sin

Martner, Ricardo; Tromben, Varinia

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2040764

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…While we are not the first to show that stock-flow reconciliation is an important part of debt dynamic (see, among others IMF, 2003;Martner and Tromben, 2004;European Commission, 2005;Budina and Fiess, 2005), we are not aware of any other paper that systematically describes the main characteristics of this residual, but extremely important, determinant of debt accumulation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…As a consequence, we do not rely on these new data and only use publicly available sources (hence, the caveats mentioned above should be kept in mind). In particular, we start with IFS and GFS and supplement them with data collected from national sources (mostly from the websites or publications of the various Ministries of Finance), the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean (ECLAC, see Martner and Tromben, 2004), and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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The unexplained part of public debt

Campos

Jaimovich

Panizza

2006

Emerging Markets Review

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The views and interpretations in this document are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Inter-American Development Bank, or to any individual acting on its behalf. This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given to the Research Department, InterAmerican Development Bank. Terms of use: Documents inThe Research Department (RES) produces a quarterly newsletter, IDEA (Ideas for Development in the Americas), as well as working papers and books on diverse economic issues. To obtain a complete list of RES publications, and read or download them please visit our web site at: http://www.iadb.org/res.3 Abstract 1This paper shows that budget deficits account for a relatively small fraction of debt growth and that stock-flow reconciliation, which is often considered a residual entity, is one of the key determinants of debt dynamics. After having explained the importance of the stock-flow reconciliation, the paper shows that this residual entity can be partly explained by contingent liabilities and balancesheet effects.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The unexplained part of public debt

Campos

Jaimovich

Panizza

2006

Emerging Markets Review

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“…V pracích posledního období se objevuje vztah udržitelnosti a fiskálních pravidel -napø. Woods (2004), analýza reakèní funkce vlády -Croce, Juan Ramon (2003) nebo Martner, Tromben (2004), zpoždìní v pøizpùsobovacím procesu - Lebow (2004) a rozbor faktorù ovlivòujících dluhovou dynamiku -napø. Kohler-Toglhofer, Zogler (2004) nebo Polito, Wickens (2005).…”

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Public finance sustainability and dynamic efficiency

Izák¹

2008

Politicka ekonomie

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In the last years there has been a growing discrepancy between gross domestic product and gross disposable income (more than a double of government budget deficit in 2006)in favour of non-residents. The difference between the real interest rate and the rate of growth of GDP has been negative in [2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006] and is expected to be negative in the near future suggesting that even a small deficit in primary budget balance can stabilize the debt ratio (30 % of GDP). But in a world of uncertainty even in the Czech republic the capital sector is on net a spout and not a sink (the profit rate has been higher than the investment rate in [1995][1996][1997][1998][1999][2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008]. Hence the czech economy seems to be dynamically efficient and an increase in national saving is necessary.

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Primary balance, public debt and fiscal variables in postsocialist members of the european union

Izák¹

2009

Prague Economic Papers

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Abstract:The primary balance has influenced the unit costs of debt servicing in 10 postsocialist members of the EU. The effects of the GDP growth and the inflation are equally robust and significant. The coefficients of lagged debt are at variance with the expectations from Bohn´s 1998 paper, and one cannot speak until now about the corrective actions of fiscal authorities in these countries. Only Poland has had on average a higher real long-term interest rate than the growth rate. Other countries could stabilize their debt-GDP ratio by running a primary deficit. But comparing the level of investment with profits only in Slovenia one can speak about the dynamic inefficiency. Especially in the Czech Republic and Slovakia the relationship between debt and deficit is blurred by high negative stock-flow adjustments.

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Public Debt Indicators in Latin American Countries: Snowball Effect, Currency Mismatch and the Original Sin

Cited by 4 publications

References 11 publications

The unexplained part of public debt

The unexplained part of public debt

Public finance sustainability and dynamic efficiency

Primary balance, public debt and fiscal variables in postsocialist members of the european union

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