Public health benefits from pictorial health warnings on US cigarette packs: a SimSmoke simulation

Levy, David T.; Mays, Darren; Yuan, Zhe; Hammond, David; Thrasher, James F.

doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2016-053087

Cited by 38 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…However, their estimates of health impacts were much larger. Levy et al [ 37 ] estimated that PWLs would reduce smoking prevalence by 5% in a 5-year time span and by 10% in a 50-year time span, whereas the initial 4.79% reduction in smoking prevalence in males from PWLs diminished to 0.59% at 10 years in our study. Moreover, the predicted deaths were 1793 for males and 1050 for females 5 years after the baseline.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 70%

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Assessing Health Impacts of Pictorial Health Warning Labels on Cigarette Packs in Korea Using DYNAMO-HIA

Kang

2017

J Prev Med Public Health

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ObjectivesThis study aimed to predict the 10-year impacts of the introduction of pictorial warning labels (PWLs) on cigarette packaging in 2016 in Korea for adults using DYNAMO-HIA. MethodsIn total, four scenarios were constructed to better understand the potential health impacts of PWLs: two for PWLs and the other two for a hypothetical cigarette tax increase. In both policies, an optimistic and a conservative scenario were constructed. The reference scenario assumed the 2015 smoking rate would remain the same. Demographic data and epidemiological data were obtained from various sources. Differences in the predicted smoking prevalence and prevalence, incidence, and mortality from diseases were compared between the reference scenario and the four policy scenarios. ResultsIt was predicted that the optimistic PWLs scenario (PWO) would lower the smoking rate by 4.79% in males and 0.66% in females compared to the reference scenario in 2017. However, the impact on the reduction of the smoking rate was expected to diminish over time. PWO will prevent 85 238 cases of diabetes, 67 948 of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 31 526 of ischemic heart disease, 21 036 of lung cancer, and 3972 prevalent cases of oral cancer in total over the 10-year span due to the reductions in smoking prevalence. The impacts of PWO are expected to be between the impact of the optimistic and the conservative cigarette tax increase scenarios. The results were sensitive to the transition probability of smoking status. ConclusionsThe introduction of PWLs in 2016 in Korea is expected reduce smoking prevalence and disease cases for the next 10 years, but regular replacements of PWLs are needed for persistent impacts.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 70%

“…Levy et al [ 37 ] estimated the effects of PWLs in the US on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths using the US SimSmoke model. They chose a much lower effect size of PWLs (4% for best estimate, 2% for lower bound, and 8% for upper bound) than ours.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Health Impacts of Pictorial Health Warning Labels on Cigarette Packs in Korea Using DYNAMO-HIA

Kang

2017

J Prev Med Public Health

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“…The residual prevalence of cigarette smokers will depend on the potency of policies directed at cigarette use. Traditional cigarette-oriented policies, including significant cigarette tax increases, 10 58–60 large and graphic pictorial warnings on cigarette packages, 61 and retail point-of-sale restrictions on advertising displays, 62 have each been projected to reduce smoking prevalence by at least 10% in relative terms. A previous study estimated that strong policies (including a $2.00 tax increase) would reduce cigarette use by 40%.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes

et al. 2017

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IntroductionUS tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use (‘vaping’) in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress.MethodsA Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts.FindingsCompared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016.ConclusionsThe tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm.

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“…On determining the countries that reached a highest-level policy between 2014 and 2016, the effect of that policy was determined by applying the change in effect sizes developed for the SimSmoke model to the level of policies in 2014 to 2016. The effect sizes are in terms of relative reductions in smoking prevalence relative to initial levels, as used in previous analyses but with health warnings updated 18 19. In gauging policy changes between 2014 and 2016, MPOWER Reports15 16 20 provided the status of each nation’s policies for 2014 and 2016.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of nations meeting the MPOWER targets between 2014 and 2016: an update

Levy

Yuan

2019

Tob Control

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ObjectiveSince the WHO released the Monitoring tobacco use and tobacco control policies; Protecting from the dangers of tobacco smoke; Offering help to quit tobacco; Warning the public about the dangers; Enforcing bans on advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and Raising tobacco taxes (MPOWER) policy package to assist nations with implementing the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), 88 countries have adopted at least one MPOWER policy at the highest level as of 2014. Building on previous evaluations, we estimated the reduction in smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) from all policies newly adopted at the highest level between 2014 and 2016.MethodsFor each nation that implemented highest level policies, the difference in policy effect sizes from previously validated SimSmoke models for the policies in effect in 2014 and 2016 were multiplied by the number of smokers in that nation to derive the reduction in the number of smokers. Based on research that half of all smokers die from smoking, we derived SADs averted.FindingsIn total, 43 nations adopted at least one highest-level MPOWER policy between 2014 and 2016, resulting in 14.6 million fewer SADs. The largest number of SADs averted were due to stronger health warnings (13.3 million), followed by raising taxes (0.6 million), increased marketing bans (0.4 million), smoke-free air laws (0.3 million) and cessation interventions (2500).ConclusionThese findings demonstrate the continuing public health impact of tobacco control policies adopted globally since the FCTC, and highlight the importance of more countries adopting MPOWER policies at the highest level to reduce the global burden of tobacco use.

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Public health benefits from pictorial health warnings on US cigarette packs: a SimSmoke simulation

Cited by 38 publications

References 65 publications

Assessing Health Impacts of Pictorial Health Warning Labels on Cigarette Packs in Korea Using DYNAMO-HIA

Assessing Health Impacts of Pictorial Health Warning Labels on Cigarette Packs in Korea Using DYNAMO-HIA

Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes

Impact of nations meeting the MPOWER targets between 2014 and 2016: an update

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