The Algerian energy sector will certainly face a crisis this century with the gradual diminution of oil and gas reserves estimated at 4Á2 billion Toe (Tons of oil equivalent), which can last for only a few decades at today's production levels. In the meantime the population and its energy needs will have doubled. This situation is complicated by the fact that the energy sector is Algeria's major source of revenue, and finances the national economy at a level of 66%. Many decision-makers now agree that time has come to implement a new energy policy, based on energy diversification, and to set up new mechanisms. The Algerian energy sector is still dominated by hydrocarbons, and has promoted a major effort to reach a mean national electrification rate of 96%. Nevertheless, the remaining zones are very isolated and widespread. The conventional electrification solutions or grid extensions are no longer economically viable. The recourse to renewable energies in general and PV solar energy in particular has become a reality. This source represents a good alternative for 85% of Algerian territory, which is composed of arid and semi-arid zones, characterized by low population density and limited energy needs. These regions represent a strategic alternative in order to reverse the population migration and to encourage a new migration to the south, since northern Algeria is less and less welcoming (high population density, unemployment, shrinkage of agricultural land, inflation). In this paper we try to evaluate the potential of the Algerian PV market in order to inform decision-makers and future investors. To this end, and after identifying the PV solar energy segments, we attempt to estimate them under different scenarios. Copyright # 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.key words: Algerian PV program; Algerian energy sector; market potential; market forecasts; PV energy policy
INTRODUCTIONThe solar potential W ith a total area of more than 2 million km 2 , Algeria receives considerable solar irradiation, more than 300 billion Toe per year, representing 30 times the world energy consumption. 1 Its climate, and hence the irradiation, can be divided into three main regions (Figure 1). The coastal or northern parts receive a mean annual daily horizontal irradiation of 5Á5 kW h/m 2 . While the center and the southern parts receive 6Á0 kW h/m 2 and 6Á5 kW h/m 2 , respectively. Some regions have a microclimate with a mean annual irradiation that may reach 7Á5 kW h/m 2 , as is the case for the Tamanrasset region, 2 ideal for PV applications since the average annual temperature is rarely greater than 25 C.