Pyroclastic Density Current Hazards and Risk

Neri, Augusto; Ongaro, T. Esposti; Voight, B.; Widiwijayanti, Christina

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-396453-3.00005-8

Cited by 27 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 89 publications

(111 reference statements)

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“…One of the main hazards in CF caldera is represented by PDC, which can produce lethal conditions for human beings and heavy damage to urban structures (e.g., Baxter et al, 2005;Neri et al, 2014). In the literature it is possible to find several studies aimed at solving the PDC hazard mapping problem in the CF area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

et al. 2017

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This study presents a new method for producing long-term hazard maps for pyroclastic density currents (PDC) originating at Campi Flegrei caldera. Such method is based on a doubly stochastic approach and is able to combine the uncertainty assessments on the spatial location of the volcanic vent, the size of the flow and the expected time of such an event. The results are obtained by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified invasion model based on the box model integral approximation. Temporal assessments are modeled through a Cox-type process including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Mean and percentile maps of PDC invasion probability are produced, exploring their sensitivity to some sources of uncertainty and to the effects of the dependence between PDC scales and the caldera sector where they originated. Conditional maps representative of PDC originating inside limited zones of the caldera, or of PDC with a limited range of scales are also produced. Finally, the effect of assuming different time windows for the hazard estimates is explored, also including the potential occurrence of a sequence of multiple events. Assuming that the last eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) marked the beginning of a new epoch of activity similar to the previous ones, results of the statistical analysis indicate a mean probability of PDC invasion above 5% in the next 50 years on almost the entire caldera (with a probability peak of ∼25% in the central part of the caldera). In contrast, probability values reduce by a factor of about 3 if the entire eruptive record is considered over the last 15 kyr, i.e., including both eruptive epochs and quiescent periods.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

et al. 2017

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“…PDCs represent the main hazard of this volcanic system [ Rosi et al ., ; Di Vito et al ., ; Orsi et al ., ]. Due to their velocity, temperature, and particle concentrations, PDCs can produce heavy damage to urban structures and lethal conditions for human beings [ Baxter et al ., ; Neri et al ., ]. Given the very high urbanization of the caldera itself and its proximity to the city of Naples, it is of prime importance that areas which may potentially be affected by PDCs are identified and ranked in terms of exposure likelihood in order that civil authorities can prepare suitable mitigation measures [e.g., Baxter et al ., ; Neri et al ., ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 2. Pyroclastic density current invasion maps

et al. 2015

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Campi Flegrei (CF) is an example of an active caldera containing densely populated settlements at very high risk of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). We present here an innovative method for assessing background spatial PDC hazard in a caldera setting with probabilistic invasion maps conditional on the occurrence of an explosive event. The method encompasses the probabilistic assessment of potential vent opening positions, derived in the companion paper, combined with inferences about the spatial density distribution of PDC invasion areas from a simplified flow model, informed by reconstruction of deposits from eruptions in the last 15 ka. The flow model describes the PDC kinematics and accounts for main effects of topography on flow propagation. Structured expert elicitation is used to incorporate certain sources of epistemic uncertainty, and a Monte Carlo approach is adopted to produce a set of probabilistic hazard maps for the whole CF area. Our findings show that, in case of eruption, almost the entire caldera is exposed to invasion with a mean probability of at least 5%, with peaks greater than 50% in some central areas. Some areas outside the caldera are also exposed to this danger, with mean probabilities of invasion of the order of 5-10%. Our analysis suggests that these probability estimates have location-specific uncertainties which can be substantial. The results prove to be robust with respect to alternative elicitation models and allow the influence on hazard mapping of different sources of uncertainty, and of theoretical and numerical assumptions, to be quantified.

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“…Presence/absence is very crude, but is an output of several PDC models (e.g., PFz; Widiwijayanti et al, 2009), and is appropriate for hazards with binary impacts (total damage given exposure). Dynamic pressure is the most appropriate for buildings and the built environment (Spence et al, 2004;Jenkins et al, 2014a;Neri et al, 2015), and is an output of some models (e.g., PYFLOW; Dioguardi and Dellino, 2014). Temperature is more challenging: there is a large range in PDC temperatures, and these temperatures can vary greatly even within a single PDC (Cole et al, 2015), which makes it difficult to model.…”

Section: Pyroclastic Density Currents (Pdcs)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Temperature is more challenging: there is a large range in PDC temperatures, and these temperatures can vary greatly even within a single PDC (Cole et al, 2015), which makes it difficult to model. Deposit thickness is not well correlated with damage (e.g., Neri et al, 2015), but is a key parameter for clean-up (Hayes et al, 2015). Both exposure duration and missile entrainment are difficult to model; while they are mentioned in the literature (e.g., Baxter et al, 1998;Esposti Ongaro et al, 2002), they are not incorporated into models at present.…”

Section: Pyroclastic Density Currents (Pdcs)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the impacts of volcanic eruptions using RiskScape

et al. 2017

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RiskScape is a free multi-hazard risk assessment software programme jointly developed by GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand. RiskScape has a modular structure, with hazard layers, assets, and loss functions prepared separately. While RiskScape was originally developed for New Zealand, given suitable hazard and exposed asset information, RiskScape can be run anywhere in the world. Volcanic hazards are among the many hazards considered by RiskScape. We first present RiskScape's framework for all hazards, and then describe in more detail the five volcanic hazards -tephra deposition, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, lahars, and edifice construction/excavation. We describe how loss functions were selected and developed. We use a scenario example to illustrate not only how RiskScape's volcanic module works but also how RiskScape can be used to compare across natural hazards.

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Pyroclastic Density Current Hazards and Risk

Cited by 27 publications

References 89 publications

The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 2. Pyroclastic density current invasion maps

Evaluating the impacts of volcanic eruptions using RiskScape

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