Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Permafrost at Risk in the Late 21st Century

Zhang, Guofei; Zhang, Nan; Hu, Na; Yin, Ziyun; Zhao, Lin; Cheng, Guodong; Mu, Cuicui

doi:10.1029/2022ef002652

Cited by 55 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Permafrost in the northwest Tibetan Plateau is likely to be most resilient to climate warming. More recent CMIP6 modelling using the updated IPCC shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5–8.5 (equivalent to RCP8.5) suggests permafrost temperature in the Tibetan Plateau will increase by 2.6 ± 0.3 °C and active layer thickness by 3.0 ± 1.0 m by 2100 ( Zhang et al, 2022 ). Based on a downscaled regional climate model (RCM), frost frequency in the Mont Blanc massif (French Alps) to 2100 is predicted to significantly decrease by 30–50%, depending on altitude, with implications for the rate and efficacy of physical weathering, permafrost melt, and land surface stability ( Pohl et al, 2019 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scientists’ warning of the impacts of climate change on mountains

Knight¹

2022

PeerJ

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Mountains are highly diverse in areal extent, geological and climatic context, ecosystems and human activity. As such, mountain environments worldwide are particularly sensitive to the effects of anthropogenic climate change (global warming) as a result of their unique heat balance properties and the presence of climatically-sensitive snow, ice, permafrost and ecosystems. Consequently, mountain systems—in particular cryospheric ones—are currently undergoing unprecedented changes in the Anthropocene. This study identifies and discusses four of the major properties of mountains upon which anthropogenic climate change can impact, and indeed is already doing so. These properties are: the changing mountain cryosphere of glaciers and permafrost; mountain hazards and risk; mountain ecosystems and their services; and mountain communities and infrastructure. It is notable that changes in these different mountain properties do not follow a predictable trajectory of evolution in response to anthropogenic climate change. This demonstrates that different elements of mountain systems exhibit different sensitivities to forcing. The interconnections between these different properties highlight that mountains should be considered as integrated biophysical systems, of which human activity is part. Interrelationships between these mountain properties are discussed through a model of mountain socio-biophysical systems, which provides a framework for examining climate impacts and vulnerabilities. Managing the risks associated with ongoing climate change in mountains requires an integrated approach to climate change impacts monitoring and management.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scientists’ warning of the impacts of climate change on mountains

Knight¹

2022

PeerJ

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“…Although our study site has experienced significant climatic warming over the last few decades, the prevalent form of permafrost thawing has been active layer deepening (Zhang et al, 2022). As the climate gets warmer, thermokarst landscapes might form; however, in the current period, we aim to first simulate the increase in active layer thickness.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Current measurements of the active layer thickness in the Tibetan alpine permafrost region give values about 100–320 cm (Xu & Wu, 2021). Under future climate change scenarios, the active layer thickness of this alpine permafrost region is predicted to increase at a rate of 6–8 cm per decade (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] 245; the scenario with a medium pathway for future greenhouse gas emissions) and 18–33 cm per decade (SSP 585; the scenario of the upper boundary of greenhouse gas emissions) towards to the end of this century (Xu & Wu, 2021; Zhang et al, 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

SWAMP: A new experiment for simulating permafrost warming and active layer deepening on the Tibetan Plateau

et al. 2023

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“…Influenced by the slope direction, the spatial distribution variability of permafrost in the degradation process on the QTP gradually expands, which makes the active layer thickness increase faster in the area relative to the sunny slope. Subsurface ice melts, and the local permafrost degradation is significant, which has an important impact on the air-ground heat exchange and hydrological cycle processes (Wang et al, 2006;Zhao et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2022), leading to the gradual differentiation of soil freeze-thaw cycle processes in different regions. First, permafrost melting increases the number of soil pores, which is conducive to the downward transfer of surface heat, and water and promotes ground ice melting.…”

Section: Ecological and Environmental Effects Of Slope Aspect Differe...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-surface heat transfer at two gentle slope sites with differing aspects, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Fan

Lin

Niu

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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The slope aspect effect is widely distributed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and has an important impact on the permafrost environment. The differences in surface heat exchange characteristics of different slope aspects in the permafrost region of Gu Mountain in the Beiluhe Basin were compared and analyzed based on observations of the south slope (sunny slope) and north slope (shadowy slope) from 2019 to 2021. The air-ground heat transfer process on the slopes was simulated using the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. Then, the simulation results of the sensible and latent heat fluxes on the slopes were corrected and analyzed using the Bowen ratio correction method. The results show that under the influence of the solar altitude angle and subsurface conditions, the downward shortwave radiation (DR), upward shortwave radiation (UR), and upward longwave radiation (ULR) were higher on the sunny slope than those on the shadowy slope, whereas the downward longwave radiation (DLR) was lower than that on the shadowy slope. Jointly, the net radiation energy on the sunny slope was smaller than that on the shadowy slope, and the annual average net radiation difference reached 16.7 W·m−2. The annual and daily variations in soil heat flux on the sunny slope were higher than those on the shadowy slope. The energy closure rate on the sunny slope was high with a confinement rate of 0.85, whereas that on the shadowy slope was poor with a confinement rate of 0.51. The air-ground energy transfer patterns on the sunny and shadowy slopes showed obvious seasonal differences. Both slopes are dominated by the sensible heat exchange transfer mode in the cold season, whereas the shadowy slope is dominated by latent heat exchange in the warm season. This study improves our understanding of the distribution, development, and environmental effects of permafrost, under the influence of local factors.

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Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Permafrost at Risk in the Late 21st Century

Cited by 55 publications

References 61 publications

Scientists’ warning of the impacts of climate change on mountains

Scientists’ warning of the impacts of climate change on mountains

SWAMP: A new experiment for simulating permafrost warming and active layer deepening on the Tibetan Plateau

Near-surface heat transfer at two gentle slope sites with differing aspects, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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