Qualitative investigation of theoretical models: the value of process tracing

Lorentzen, Peter; Fravel, M. Taylor; Paine, Jack

doi:10.1177/0951629816664420

Cited by 37 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…49 Because we require access to internal assessments and discussions, we take advantage 45. On the value of archival and similar transcript evidence for testing models' mechanisms, see Lorentzen, Fravel, and Paine 2017. 46. On US information advantages and interests in regime protection, see Monteiro and Debs 2014.…”

Section: Empirical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The Spotlight's Harsh Glare: Rethinking Publicity and International Order

Carnegie¹,

Carson²

2018

Int Org

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How does publicizing states' illicit activities affect the stability of international order? What does this relationship tell us about how governments react to violations of international rules? In contrast to the conventional wisdom that transparent monitoring strengthens the normative legal order, we argue that these activities often undermine it. We develop two mechanisms through which this occurs: by raising the known rate of noncompliance, and by sharpening the threat that deviance poses to other states. We argue that when enforcers understand the dangers of publicizing transgressions, they do so selectively. Focusing on the nuclear nonproliferation domain, we demonstrate that these concerns shaped American decisions to reveal or obfuscate other states' efforts to obtain nuclear weapons. We formalize this argument and then empirically test the model's predictions using in-depth case study analyses. We find that the US failed to disclose infractions when this publicity would have undermined the rules through the two mechanisms we identify. However, while concealing violations can prevent proliferation in response to specific nuclear programs, it can also create potential dangers to a regime's overall health and stability. In addition to reassessing a widely shared assumption about the value of transparent monitoring, this article's broad theoretical framework can shed light on enforcement and compliance dynamics in a variety of international settings.

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Section: Empirical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The Spotlight's Harsh Glare: Rethinking Publicity and International Order

Carnegie¹,

Carson²

2018

Int Org

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“…Second, the theoretical model can be modified to better capture the characteristics of the member states that are reluctant to join an integration project or of the neighbouring countries that demand an excessive amount of compensation. This second avenue for future research should be particularly suitable for a theoretically informed empirical analysis that draws on data for the demands and outcomes of a series of integration negotiations (see, e.g., Lorentzen et al, 2017) . The third avenue for future research concerns the impact of the Brexit negotiations for the future of external differentiation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why differentiated integration is such a common practice in Europe: A rational explanation

Holzinger

Tosun

2019

Journal of Theoretical Politics

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With Brexit imminent, the debate on the need for differentiated integration (DI) by means of opting-out has gained new momentum. At the same time, non-member states decide to adopt European Union (EU) rules as exemplified by the European Neighbourhood Policy. In light of these opposing observations, we examine the EU’s disposition to supply DI. We outline the strategic interactions of the EU member states or non-members in the context of two forms of DI: opting-out and inducing-in. In the case of opting-out, EU member states can refrain from adopting EU rules; inducing-in refers to providing non-member states with incentives to adopt EU rules. We show that the information asymmetries inherent to the strategic interactions result in a situation in which the EU is likely to supply opportunities to opt-out for member states to a much greater extent than necessary. Furthermore, the EU is likely to offer more compensation to non-member states in exchange for adopting EU rules than it would actually need to.

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“…For example, Lorentzen et al . (2017: 472) explains that, ‘rather than trying to assess whether or not changes in X produce changes in Y, the goal is to evaluate a particular mechanism linking the two’. This argument suggests that we can view process tracing as a way to use quantitative analysis and qualitative evidence as complements instead of substitutes.…”

Section: Process Tracingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Qualitative research methods for institutional analysis

Skarbek

2020

Journal of Institutional Economics

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AbstractHow can economists use qualitative evidence – such as archival materials, interviews, and ethnography – to study institutions? While applied economists typically rely on quantitative evidence and statistical estimation, many important aspects of institutions and institutional change appear in the form of qualitative evidence. This raises the question if, and how, social scientists trained in quantitative methods can exploit and analyze this evidence. This paper discusses two qualitative research methods that are both commonly used outside of economics: comparative case studies and process tracing. Drawing on existing research about crime and political revolutions, it discusses these two methods and how to implement them to improve institutional analysis.

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Qualitative investigation of theoretical models: the value of process tracing

Cited by 37 publications

References 70 publications

The Spotlight's Harsh Glare: Rethinking Publicity and International Order

The Spotlight's Harsh Glare: Rethinking Publicity and International Order

Why differentiated integration is such a common practice in Europe: A rational explanation

Qualitative research methods for institutional analysis

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