It is crucial for the efficacy of the apple storage to apply methods like electronic nose systems for detection and prediction of spoilage or infection by Penicillium expansum. Based on the acquisition of electronic nose signals, selected sensitive feature sensors of spoilage apple and all sensors were analyzed and compared by the recognition effect. Principal component analysis (PCA), principle component analysis-discriminant analysis (PCA-DA), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), partial least squares discriminate analysis (PLS-DA) and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) were used to establish the classification model of apple with different degrees of corruption. PCA-DA has the best prediction, the accuracy of training set and prediction set was 100% and 97.22%, respectively. synergy interval (SI), genetic algorithm (GA) and competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS) are three selection methods used to accurately and quickly extract appropriate feature variables, while constructing a PLS model to predict plaque area. Among them, the PLS model with unique variables was optimized by CARS method, and the best prediction result of the area of the rotten apple was obtained. The best results are as follows: Rc = 0.953, root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) = 1.28, Rp = 0.972, root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) = 1.01. The results demonstrated that the electronic nose has a potential application in the classification of rotten apples and the quantitative detection of spoilage area.