Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States

Mills, David; Jones, Russell; Carney, Karen M.; Juliana, Alexis St.; Ready, Richard C.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Shouse, Kate C.; DeAngelo, Benjamin; Monier, Erwan

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1118-z

Cited by 18 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Cumulative response costs differed by about $46-80M between RCPs, representing a ∼4% reduction in costs, if the RCP4.5 emissions scenario is realized. The relatively modest benefit of GHG emissions reductions observed here is consistent with a similar analysis for the contiguous USA, which reported a 13-14% reduction in area burned when comparing high and low GHG emissions futures (CIRA 2015;Mills et al 2015).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska’s changing climate

Melvin

Murray²,

Boehlert

et al. 2017

Climatic Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change is altering wildfire activity across Alaska, with increased area burned projected for the future. Changes in wildfire are expected to affect the need for management and suppression resources; however, the potential economic implications of these needs have not been evaluated. We projected area burned and associated response costs to 2100 under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5) using the Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO) model. We calculated unique response costs for each of the four fire management options (FMOs) currently used in Alaska that vary in suppression level using federal cost data. Cumulative area burned between 2006 and 2100 across Alaska averaged 46.7M ha under five climate models for RCP8.5 and 42.1M ha for RCP4.5, with estimated cumulative response costs of $1.2-2.1B and $1.1-2.0B, respectively (3% discount). The largest response costs were incurred for the Full FMO, an area of high suppression priority, but where risks to human life and property are relatively low. Projected response costs across the century indicated that costs would be largest annually in the 2090 era (2080-2099) under RCP8.5, totaling $41.9-72.9M per year. For RCP4.5, the highest costs were projected for the 2070 era (2060)(2061)(2062)(2063)(2064)(2065)(2066)(2067)(2068)(2069)(2070)(2071)(2072)(2073)(2074)(2075)(2076)(2077)(2078)(2079)

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska’s changing climate

Melvin

Murray²,

Boehlert

et al. 2017

Climatic Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In particular, researchers using climate simulations to drive impact models should always use individual model simulations and not ensemble mean simulations in order to account for natural variability. That is because natural variability is a driver for extreme climate and weather events, which can dominate impacts, and would not be accounted in ensemble mean simulations, as illustrated in Mills et al (2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

et al. 2014

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States (US) associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework are the emissions projections, global climate system parameters, natural variability and model structural uncertainty. The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) (with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere). Regional climate change over the US is obtained through a two-pronged approach. First, we use the IGSM-CAM framework, which links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Second, we use a pattern-scaling method that extends the IGSM zonal mean based on climate change patterns from various climate models. Results show that the range of annual mean temperature changes are mainly driven by policy choices and the range of climate sensitivity considered. Meanwhile, the four sources of uncertainty contribute more equally to end-of-century precipitation changes, with natural variability dominating until 2050. For the set of scenarios used in this study, the choice of policy is the largest driver of uncertainty, defined as the range of warming and changes in precipitation, in future projections of climate change over the US.

show abstract

“…For example, more extreme hot events would lead to more wildfires and affect ecosystem carbon storage (Mills et al 2013a). Decreases in extreme cold events can result in earlier springs, longer growing seasons, and higher crop productivity, which have been observed in the past few decades (Hicke et al 2002).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Monier

Gao

2014

Climatic Change

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.

show abstract

Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States

Cited by 18 publications

References 15 publications

Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska’s changing climate

Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska’s changing climate

A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About